A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae
Wee
Beijing's latest stimulus pledges were met on Monday with a
mixed and volatile response in Chinese stocks, with investors
showing no consensus view on promises over the weekend that were
long on intent but short on details.
Hong Kong shares got off to a choppy start before turning
decisively lower, in contrast with their peers in mainland China
which mostly traded higher.
Some analysts attributed the divergent performance to the
lack of a dollar figure for the package, which may have mattered
more to foreign investors than to their Chinese counterparts.
The sweeping measures - from helping local governments
tackle their debt problems to supporting the property market and
replenishing state banks' capital - underscored policymakers'
commitment to supporting the ailing Chinese economy.
But the limited scope of efforts to boost domestic
consumption remains a huge concern for investors, particularly
after data on Sunday showed China's consumer inflation
unexpectedly eased in September while producer price deflation
deepened.
The mixed picture across Chinese markets on Monday has set a
negative tone for Europe, where EUROSTOXX 50 futures
and FTSE futures both fell around 0.1% each.
Shares of European luxury goods companies will be in focus
given the attention to China, with a gauge of 10 top European
luxury stocks already up nearly 9% since Sept. 24,
when Beijing unveiled its most aggressive stimulus since the
pandemic.
The week also brings a raft of data from China, including
the country's third-quarter growth figures on Friday, so there
will be lots for investors to chew on in the coming days.
China aside, a rate decision by the European Central Bank is
due on Thursday, where expectations are for policymakers to
deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut. UK inflation data is due on
Wednesday.
Remarks from the Federal Reserve's Neel Kashkari and
Christopher Waller are expected later on Monday, and there is
strong interest in what they might say about the central bank's
rate outlook.
An outsized 50-basis-point rate cut next month is now off
the table, given signs of a resilient U.S. economy, and that's
kept the dollar well-supported and hovering near a seven-week
high against a basket of major peers on Monday.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
- Fed's Kashkari, Waller speak
- France reopening of 3-month, 6-month, 7-month and 1-year
government debt auctions
- Germany reopening of 1-year government debt auction