May 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Monetary policy decisions from New Zealand and Indonesia are the
main points of focus in Asia on Wednesday, as debate over the
timing of the first U.S. rate cut ebbs and flows, and lofty
equity markets consider their next step.
Asian stocks retreated on Tuesday, snapping a seven-day winning
streak despite the relative calm in currency and bond markets.
But Wall Street crept higher, with the Nasdaq reaching a new
peak ahead of Nvidia's ( NVDA ) first-quarter earnings report.
The message on interest rates from a raft of Federal Reserve
officials on Tuesday was patience. Indeed, it may be several
months before policymakers are confident inflation is really
falling back to target, allowing them to start cutting rates.
With many stock markets around the world at record or
multi-year highs, a period of cooling may be inevitable. The
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index on Tuesday slipped 0.9% - its biggest
fall in over a month - while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.3%, and Hong
Kong's Hang Seng shed more than 2%.
After Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson rowed back on his
long-standing gloomy outlook for Wall Street on Monday, another
prominent bear, JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic, reiterated his view
that U.S. stocks are too expensive and should head south.
He is much more upbeat on Asia, favoring Japanese and
Chinese equities over U.S. markets. Japan is attractive because
of inflation and monetary policy normalization, while measures
to support the housing market, underweight investor positioning
and cheap valuations are reasons to buy China.
While the world maintains its vigil ahead of AI darling
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) results on Wednesday, investors in Asia digest two
monetary policy decisions and other potentially exchange
rate-moving data, including Japanese trade and South Korean
producer price inflation.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank Indonesia are both
expected to leave their key interest rates on hold, at 5.50% and
6.25%, respectively, according to Reuters polls.
The RBNZ is only expected to cut its cash rate once this
year, and probably not until the final quarter. Money markets
are a bit more dovish, and are currently pricing in 45 basis
points of easing by year-end.
After stunning markets last month with an unexpected rate hike
to support the rupiah, Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to keep
its seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 6.25% and hold it there
for several months, or until the Fed cuts U.S. rates.
In a rare media briefing earlier this month, BI Governor
Perry Warjiyo said current data shows there is no need to raise
rates again, and the central bank is trying to strengthen the
rupiah beyond 16,000 per dollar.
The rupiah closed trading on Tuesday at 15,990 per dollar.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- New Zealand monetary policy decision
- Indonesia monetary policy decision
- Japan trade (April)