March 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Trading in Asia on Friday is shaping up to be a battle
between global market strength on one side, and local caution on
the other, particularly surrounding the two regional powerhouses
China and Japan.
U.S., European and world stocks as measured by the MSCI
All-Country index roared to record highs again on Thursday,
spurred by - what else? - another surge in chip stocks. Hopes
that the Fed and ECB could soon start cutting rates also boosted
sentiment.
New highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, a weaker dollar and
lower U.S. Treasury yields should be a positive cocktail for
Asian stocks. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index will have its seventh
weekly rise in eight if it avoids a 1% decline on Friday.
But concern over China's economy and deepening U.S.-Sino trade
tensions are never far from the surface, and they bubbled up
again on Thursday.
In Japan, meanwhile, the Nikkei slumped 1% after the yen clocked
its biggest rise of the year on mounting speculation that the
Bank of Japan could end negative interest rates as soon as this
month.
The Nikkei has touched record highs recently so some
profit-taking is to be expected. Similarly, U.S. futures market
data show speculative short positions in the yen are the largest
in six years, so a bout of short covering was always likely.
Japan dominates the Asian economic calendar on Friday, with
the latest household spending, bank lending, trade and current
account data all scheduled for release.
The news flow around China over the last 24 hours hasn't
been particularly bullish for asset prices.
S&P Global warned that China's credit rating could be cut if its
economic recovery remains weak or is driven largely by extensive
stimulus. S&P last downgraded China in 2017 but rival agency
Moody's put Beijing on a downgrade warning in December.
Beijing is fighting deflation, a property sector crash and
slowing growth. The sums needed to turn all that around, as well
as bail out indebted local governments, are extremely high.
On the trade front, three U.S. Senate Democrats from auto
manufacturing states on Thursday urged the Biden administration
to hike import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the latest
push by lawmakers to protect the U.S. auto sector.
With pressure growing on the White House to take further steps
to prevent Chinese vehicle imports, the U.S. House Energy and
Commerce committee approved legislation to vote on legislation
giving China's ByteDance six months to divest from short video
app TikTok or face a U.S. ban.
This is the backdrop to IMF Managing Director Kristalina
Georgieva and First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath's
planned visit to Beijing later this month to meet with Chinese
authorities and attend economic conferences.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Japan household spending (January)
- Japan trade and current account (January)
- Taiwan trade (February)