MUMBAI, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Indian government bonds are
expected to trade largely unchanged on Wednesday after the
benchmark yield breached a key level in the previous session, as
investor focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy
decision and outlook.
The 10-year yield is likely to move between
6.73% and 6.77%, a trader with a private bank said, compared
with the previous close of 6.7588%.
"More than the decision, the economic projections as well as
the dot plot for 2025 are important triggers for the market,
which will dominate the next direction for Treasuries as well as
local bonds," the trader said.
The Fed's policy decision will come after Indian markets
close on Wednesday. While the U.S. central bank is widely
expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, markets are
fearing an uncertain outlook and cautious commentary for 2025.
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, which is
expected to be highlighted by the central bank and could go
against the doves.
The debt market will also focus on the Fed's quarterly
economic projections and the dot plot, which had showed in
September a policy rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025.
The 10-year Treasury yield remained around the 4.40% mark in
Asia hours, with the odds of a 25-bp cut at over 97%. However,
the chances of a reduction in January are just around 16%,
according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Locally, markets are awaiting debt supply as well as minutes
of the Reserve Bank of India's December meeting, both due on
Friday.
New Delhi aims to raise 290 billion rupees ($3.42
billion)through sale of bonds, which includes a new five-year
bonds.
The RBI maintained status quo on policy rates earlier this
month, but infused liquidity into the banking system through a
cut in banks' cash reserve ratio.
KEY INDICATORS:
** Brent crude futures 0.25% higher at $73.35 per
barrel, after easing 1% in the previous session
** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.3908%;
two-year yield was at 4.2384%
** RBI to auction treasury bills worth 190 billion rupees
($1 = 84.8980 Indian rupees)
(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)