financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Global stocks set for modest gains, hinging on series of rate cuts: Reuters poll
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Global stocks set for modest gains, hinging on series of rate cuts: Reuters poll
Aug 24, 2024 6:42 AM

BENGALURU (Reuters) - Global stocks will brush aside recent market turmoil and gain modestly from current levels in coming months, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists, amid rising expectations major central banks are set for a series of interest rate cuts. 

Unwinding of large leveraged positions funded in Japanese yen and recent weaker U.S. jobs data sent equity markets into a tailspin in early August, causing the global MSCI index to plummet about 9% from an all-time high set in mid-July.

But that key global index has since recovered almost all its losses and is now up around 14% for the year. Markets have swiftly moved away from recession concerns even though they are now pricing in more interest rate cuts than were expected just a few months ago.

Economists are predicting a more gradual easing cycle, given there has been no shift in the view the global economy will keep growing at a steady pace. Federal Reserve officials have said nothing to suggest more aggressive rate cuts are imminent.

"We think growth fears moved too far, and in places look overpriced relative to our central forecast," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX, rates and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs.

"From a market standpoint, we again think it makes sense to lean against extreme concerns and keep faith in...continued expansion and decelerating inflation rather than imminent recession."

The latest Reuters poll of over 150 equity strategists, stock brokers and portfolio managers taken Aug. 8-20 showed most major equity indices gaining further by year-end.

However, with 13 of 15 bourses surveyed already trading at or near their record highs, all but one were forecast to rack up single-digit gains from now until then.

In a May survey, analysts said while a run-up in global stocks was not yet over, it was beginning to show signs of fatigue.

Analysts in the August survey expected 13 out of the 15 equity indices polled to grow more slowly in 2024 versus last year, with only London and Toronto expected to better their 2023 performance.

While the benchmark U.S. S&P 500 was forecast to trade near current record levels at year-end, the euro zone's blue chip index, the STOXX50E was forecast to gain 3.4% from Monday's close to 5,038 by end-2024.

Even India's high-flying benchmark stock index, the BSE Sensex, was predicted to rise just over 3% from Monday's close to a lifetime high of 83,000 by year-end.

Despite the tempered outlook, an outright global correction - a drop of 10% or more - was not expected over the coming three months, according to a 60% majority of analysts, 57 of 95, who answered an additional question.

That was mostly because a majority of strategists, 51 of 85, predicted corporate earnings to outperform expectations for the rest of the year in their local markets. The remaining 34 said earnings will underperform expectations.

"We believe the market may be in a goldilocks scenario with the Fed poised to cut rates", inflation on a downward path, the job market contained, and the macro-economic picture resilient overall, said Michael Gibbs, Lead Portfolio Manager at Raymond James.

"(This) should drive earnings growth and support our positive bias for equities," he added.

(Other stories from the Reuters Q3 global stock markets poll package)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
GLOBAL MARKETS-China gloom sucks life out of Asia's rate cut cheer
GLOBAL MARKETS-China gloom sucks life out of Asia's rate cut cheer
Mar 21, 2024
(Recasts to lead on Chinese markets, updates prices) By Rae Wee SINGAPORE, March 22 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks were a sea of red on Friday and the yuan fell sharply, dragging down the broader mood in Asia and putting a dent in the rate cut rally after a surprise move from the Swiss National Bank had investors wagering on who...
Asia shares on a roll as SNB kicks off rate cuts
Asia shares on a roll as SNB kicks off rate cuts
Mar 21, 2024
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks were near a weekly gain on Friday and the Nikkei charged to a record high, riding a rally from its global counterparts after a surprise rate cut from the Swiss National Bank had investors wagering who could be next. The SNB's 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday proved a shot in the arm for...
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares on a roll as SNB kicks off rate cuts
GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares on a roll as SNB kicks off rate cuts
Mar 21, 2024
SINGAPORE, March 22 (Reuters) - Asian stocks were near a weekly gain on Friday and the Nikkei charged to a record high, riding a rally from its global counterparts after a surprise rate cut from the Swiss National Bank had investors wagering who could be next. The SNB's 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday proved a shot in the...
China yuan falls to four-month low, state banks step in
China yuan falls to four-month low, state banks step in
Mar 21, 2024
(Updates to midday) SHANGHAI, March 22 (Reuters) - China's yuan declined to a four-month low against the dollar on Friday, breaching a key threshold and prompting state-owned banks to step in to defend the currency. In the spot market, the onshore yuan fell to the weak side of the psychologically important 7.2 per dollar level to hit a low of...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved