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GLOBAL MARKETS-World shares nudge towards record high with Powell in focus, dollar in the doldrums
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GLOBAL MARKETS-World shares nudge towards record high with Powell in focus, dollar in the doldrums
Aug 23, 2024 10:00 AM

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S&P 500 futures up 0.5%, STOXX 600 up 0.35%

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10 yr Treasury yield down 2 bps at 3.843%

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Euro below 13-month high, sterling pushing towards

two-year top

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Brent up 1% on day but set for weekly fall

(Updates at 1120 GMT)

By Alun John and Stella Qiu

LONDON/SYDNEY, Aug 23 (Reuters) - World shares steadied

on Friday, sitting just 1% shy of all-time highs, while the

dollar languished around one-year lows ahead of a speech by the

world's most powerful central banker which markets will peruse

for guidance on the shape of U.S. rate cuts.

Europe's broad Stoxx 600 index rose 0.35% after

Asian shares outside Japan had nudged down 0.1%, but Japan's

Nikkei gained 0.4% as investors digested inflation data

and remarks from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda flagging a

willingness to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation

turn out as forecast.

That left MSCI's all country world index up

a whisker, and with early August's turmoil in the rear view

mirror, it is now trading around 1% off its mid July all time

peak.

It could get closer to that milestone later in the day with

S&P500 futures up 0.55%.

The main event of the week, certainly for bond and currency

markets, is still to come however: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome

Powell's keynote speech to the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson

Hole Research conference, which comes as U.S. economic data

gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates.

Markets are fully priced for a 25 bp rate cut in September

and see a cut at each of the Fed's three remaining meetings this

year, and for one to be a larger 50 bp move.

The speech will be watched carefully to see whether it

challenges or underscores such pricing.

"The bond market is just focused on Jackson Hole and whether

the extent of rate cuts it is pricing in is correct, the equity

markets have a few other things to chew on," said Manish Kabra,

lead U.S. equities & multi-asset strategist at Societe Generale.

He said Nasdaq earnings, the U.S. election and the

tentative rotation out of large tech stocks were other things to

consider.

On the final night of the four-day

Democratic National Convention

, Vice President Kamala Harris promised to be a "realistic,"

"practical" president for all Americans.

For the bond market, expectations that rate cuts are coming

have kept U.S. Treasury prices supported and not giving back

their safe-haven gains from early August.

The benchmark 10 year Treasury yield was down 2 basis points

at 3.843% - it has only been above 4% for a very brief period in

August, after spending almost all of 2024 there.

Its German equivalent was steady at 2.24%.

The low U.S. yields have hurt the dollar, which has lost

ground on almost all major peers in August.

The euro was last at $1.1115, steady on the day

and just off a 13 month peak hit earlier this week, and sterling

was up 0.24% at $1.3125, battling to push through its

July 2023 level, which would take it to its highest in well over

two years.

The Japanese yen strengthened, with the dollar down 0.2% at

145.85 after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda flagged

an willingness to raise interest rates if the economy and

inflation turn out as forecast.

"The yen buying today is understandable given Governor Ueda

showed very little sign of a shift in the views and plans of the

BoJ following the financial market turmoil earlier this month,"

said Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets EMEA at

MUFG in a note to clients.

Data out early in the day showed Japan's core inflation

accelerated for a third straight month, but a slowdown in

demand-drive price gains suggest no urgency for any immediate

rate hikes.

Oil gained but was still set to end the week lower.

Brent crude futures were up 1% at $77.98 a barrel,

although they are down more than 2% for the week as swelling

U.S. crude stocks and a weakening demand outlook in China have

raised pessimism.

Gold prices are up 0.6% to $2,499.3 an ounce,

recharging towards its record high of $2,531.6 hit just on

Tuesday.

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