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Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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S&P 500 futures edge down before US CPI, earnings
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China exports jump almost 11%, surplus with US widens
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Dollar holds firm, sterling hits fresh low
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Treasury yields near 14-mth top, Fed easing scaled back
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Oil jumps to 4-mth high as Russia supply crimped
(Adds BofA quote in paragraph 6-7, updates prices to Asian
afternoon)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Stocks slid broadly in Asia
on Monday while the dollar hit 14-month peaks in the wake of an
unambiguously strong payrolls report that pushed up bond yields
and tested lofty equity valuations just as the earnings season
gets under way.
The hawkish jolt also raised the stakes in relation to U.S.
consumer price figures on Wednesday where any rise in the core
greater than the forecast 0.2% would threaten to close the door
on easing altogether.
Not helping was a spike in oil prices to four-month highs
amid signs of weaker crude shipments from Russia as Washington
stepped up sanctions on the country.
Data also showed China's export growth picked up steam in
December, while imports recovered, as the world's No. 2 economy
braces for mounting trade risks with the incoming U.S.
administration.
Markets have already scaled back expectations for Federal
Reserve rate cuts to just 27 basis points for all of 2025, with
the Fed now seen cutting to only around 4.0% compared to the
3.0% many had hoped for this time last year.
"After a very strong jobs report, we think the cutting cycle
is over," declared Aditya Bhave, deputy chief U.S. economist at
BofA. "Inflation is stuck above target, with upside risks."
"The conversation should move to hikes, which could be in
play if y/y core PCE exceeds 3% and inflation expectations
de-anchor," he added, referring to the Fed's favoured personal
consumption expenditure measure of prices.
At least five Fed officials are on the docket to speak this
week and offer their reaction to the jobs surprise, with the
influential Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John
Williams appearing on Wednesday.
The sea change on rates lifted yields on 10-year Treasuries
to 14-month peaks of 4.79%, and they were last
trading at 4.764% in Asia.
Higher yields on risk-free bonds raise the discounting bar
for corporate earnings and make debt relatively more attractive
compared to equities, cash, property and commodities.
They also raise borrowing costs for businesses and
consumers, and that is before President-elect Donald Trump's
proposed tariffs inflate import prices.
This could test the optimism around corporate earnings as
the season kicks off on Wednesday with the major banks including
Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
BEARS SLATHER OVER STERLING
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures
0.5%, adding to Friday's pullback. EUROSTOXX 50 futures
and FTSE futures eased 0.2%, while DAX futures
were almost flat.
A holiday in Japan made for thin early trading on Monday and
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
edged down 0.4%.
While the Nikkei was shut, futures traded
down sharply at 38,430 compared to a cash close of 39,190.
South Korean stocks eased 1.0%, with the political
situation still in flux as a Constitutional Court hearing begins
on Tuesday to decide whether impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol,
will be removed from office or reinstated.
Chinese blue chips were off 0.2%, as data showed
exports rose a surprisingly steep 10.7% and imports added 1%.
The performance was almost too strong given it swelled the
December surplus with the U.S. to $105 billion and provided
ammunition to those calling for harsh tariffs on Chinese goods.
China's central bank also stepped up efforts to defend a
weakening yuan by relaxing rules to allow more offshore
borrowing and sending verbal warnings on the currency.
Figures for Chinese gross domestic product, retail sales and
industrial output are out on Friday.
The inexorable rise in Treasury yields has boosted the
dollar across the board and seen the euro fall for eight weeks
straight to sit at $1.0210, its lowest since November
2022. The dollar index added 0.2% to 108.94 .
Sterling slid 0.5% to another 14-month low of $1.2129
, with sentiment soured by a recent rout in the gilt
market on concerns the Labour government would have to borrow
more to fund spending pledges.
British finance minister Rachel Reeves on Saturday vowed she
would act to ensure the government's fiscal rules were met.
The dollar did ease a touch to 157.50 yen, off a
recent six-month top of 158.88, amid reports the Bank of Japan
might revise up its inflation forecasts this month as a prelude
to hiking rates again.
Gold prices held firm at $2,686 an ounce, having
proven surprisingly resilient in the face of a stronger dollar
and higher bond yields.
Oil prices continued to climb on supply concerns as Russia's
seaborne exports hit their lowest since August 2023, even before
the latest round of U.S. sanctions.
Brent jumped $1.19 to $80.94 a barrel, while U.S.
crude surged $1.27 to $77.84 per barrel.