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Stocks mixed as economic worries meet rate cut hopes
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CPI report on tap
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Banks under pressure after Barr's bank capital plan
revisions
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JPMorgan Chase's ( JPM ) interest income warning further rattles
sector
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Oil dips as OPEC+ lowers demand forecast
(Updates to 16:02 EDT)
By Stephen Culp
NEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq
gained ground while Brent crude prices hit a 3-1/2-year low on
Tuesday amid concerns over softening global demand a day ahead
of key inflation data.
Market participants were girding for the Labor Department's
consumer price index report, and the first debate between Vice
President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who
are locked in a tight race for the White House.
Data from China showing a spike in exports appeared to be in
anticipation of tighter tariffs from trading partners, including
the incoming U.S. administration.
Megacap tech and tech-related stocks helped boost the Nasdaq
, while the S&P 500 posted a more modest gain and the blue-chip
Dow finished in the red.
"It really feels like today is kind of a calm before the
storm," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson
Group in Omaha. "We obviously have the first presidential debate
between Trump and Harris later this evening, but then we have
the CPI inflation data tomorrow and investors are kind of on
strike right now with no major buying or selling."
Shares of big banks were under pressure after Federal
Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr unveiled
sweeping bank capital plan revisions.
The sector was further rattled after JPMorgan Chase ( JPM )
issued an interest income warning as interest rates are expected
to ease.
The warning from JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) "is a reminder that there
still are some cracks in the economy as we head into the end of
the year," Detrick added.
Wednesday's CPI report is expected to show inflation
drifting closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, reflecting
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's belief that price growth is under
control, and softness in the labor market suggests the time has
come for an interest rate cut.
Financial markets are baking in a 71% likelihood that the
central bank will cut its Fed funds target rate by 25 basis
points at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting next
week, with a 31% chance of a supersized 50 basis point rate cut,
according to CME's FedWatch tool.
"Investors are firmly focused on what the Fed is going to
do, and on economic reports," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice
president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. "So far, the
data indicates that the most likely scenario is a soft landing
or very mild recession."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 92.63 points,
or 0.23%, to 40,736.96; the S&P 500 gained 24.47 points,
or 0.45%, to 5,495.52; and the Nasdaq Composite added
141.28 points, or 0.84%, to 17,025.88.
European stocks lost ground, weighed by bank and energy
stocks as investors took a cautionary stance ahead of the U.S.
inflation data and an anticipated rate cut from the European
Central Bank later in the week.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.54% and
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained
0.17%.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.07%. MSCI's broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.07%
higher, while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.16%.
U.S. Treasury yields dipped ahead of the debate and
Wednesday's CPI report.
Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 14/32 in price
to yield 3.6479%, down from 3.699% late on Monday.
The 30-year bond last rose 20/32 in price to
yield 3.9648%, down from 3.999% late on Monday.
The dollar was last nominally higher against a basket of
world currencies.
The dollar index rose 0.06%, with the euro
down 0.07% to $1.1026.
The Japanese yen strengthened 0.60% versus the
greenback at 142.33 per dollar, while Sterling was last
trading at $1.3085, up 0.10% on the day.
Oil prices slid and Brent dipped below $70 per barrel for
the first time since December 2021 as a lower demand forecast
from OPEC+ offset potential U.S. supply concerns due to Tropical
Storm Francine.
U.S. crude tumbled 4.31% to settle at $65.75 per
barrel, while Brent settled at $69.19 per barrel, off
3.69% on the day.
Gold firmed above the $2,500 level as investors positioned
themselves ahead of the CPI report.
Spot gold added 0.5% to $2,516.61 an ounce.