LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural
gas (LNG) prices fell this week to its lowest level in 10 weeks
amid mild weather and strong storage inventories.
The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east
Asia was at $13.30 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), its lowest level since mid October and down from
slightly lower than $14.50/mmBtu last week, industry sources
estimated.
"The market is reasonably comfortable in immediate
supply/demand terms. China seems well-stocked and Japan is
bringing some new nuclear plants back in coming weeks," said
Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.
"Given normal weather and an absence of supply shocks, the
conditions could be in place for prices to begin a slow slide
over the first quarter of 2025, similar to last year," Froley
added.
Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at Argus, said the easing
of Asian prices was due to weak downstream consumption in the
face of mild weather and was met by a spate of cargo offers.
Both Beijing and Seoul are expected to have mostly
above-average daily minimum temperatures for the end of this
month and through January. However, Tokyo was set for continued
colder weather throughout the period which could support
Japanese terminal throughput in the coming weeks, Good said.
In Europe, gas prices rose this week as uncertainty remains
over Russian gas flows to Europe with the end of the Ukraine gas
transit deal looming.
"Russia's pipeline flows through Ukraine will remain a key
focus of attention for traders across the holiday period," ICIS'
Froley said.
Florence Schmit, a European energy strategist at Rabobank,
said that Russian flows through Ukraine is unlikely to resume in
the first quarter of 2025, leaving Europe more exposed to higher
LNG import demand in the new year.
"As the amount of gas that will have to be replaced is
small, actual concern about supply availability is limited.
Demand in Asia and the pace of Europe's gas storage withdrawals
will be key in determining which market will become the premium
market in Q1," she added.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.967/mmBtu on Dec. 19,
a $0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch
TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price at $12.990/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed the price for January delivery at
$12.913/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal
is currently also signalling U.S. cargos are incentivised to
deliver to Northwest Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst
Qasim Afghan.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose for the fourth week
running to $23,500/day on Friday, while Pacific rates rose to
$22,000/day, Afghan added.