LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural
gas (LNG) prices fell this week from a one-month high, amid weak
demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, healthy
stocks and as recent high prices kept some buyers at bay.
The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east
Asia was $14.00 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), down from $14.60 last week, industry sources estimated.
"Spot gas prices in Europe and in Asia have dropped back
from their highs at the start of the month, as the market has
absorbed the shutdown of Russia-Ukraine pipe flows" said Alex
Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.
"China's demand doesn't seem too strong at the moment.
November and December dropped below last year's levels and we
saw three cargoes re-exported in December, one each to South
Korea, Thailand and Japan," Froley said.
The high price levels over the past weeks have kept price
sensitive buyers in both China and India away from the spot
market, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.
With stocks still relatively well-filled and not much
economic improvement given the latest numbers on Chinese
industrial production and inflation, it seems clear that some
portfolio managers must be well-prepared for the second half of
the winter, said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild
Commodity Intelligence.
"As the Lunar New Year approaches, the risk of any shortfall
during the winter season decreases by the day. It is hence no
surprise that spot activity is still limited with only
Bangladesh as an active buyer at the moment," Dozeman added.
In Europe, LNG delivered prices fell this week from a
one-year high the previous week. However, the inter-basin
arbitrage, moving cargos from one market to another, has held
firmly shut, with at least two cargoes diverting in the
mid-Atlantic to Europe this week as Asian buyers are not
competing for Atlantic basin supply, Argus' Martin Senior said.
Meanwhile, Europe has been withdrawing from gas storage
faster than the last few years but those winters were mild, and
this year's trajectory is not out of line with longer-term
averages, ICIS' Froley said.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $13.385/mmBtu on Jan. 9, a
$0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch TTF
hub.
Argus assessed the price at $13.355/mmBtu, while Spark
Commodities assessed it at $13.324/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal
is currently also signalling U.S. cargoes are incentivised to
deliver to north-west Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst
Qasim Afghan.
The front-month arbitrage is also firmly closed, likely a
large driving factor behind the recent diversions of U.S.
cargoes away from Asia and towards Europe.
In LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped to $24,000/day on
Friday, while Pacific rates remained steady at $21,750/day,
Afghan added.