(Updates at 0414 GMT)
By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The yen crumbled on
Wednesday after a Bank of Japan official played down the chances
of a near-term rate hike in a fresh twist to the week that
started with massive moves driven by U.S. recession fears and
unwinding of popular carry trades.
The yen was last down more than 2% at 147.69 per
dollar having touched session lows of 147.935 following the
comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. The last time
the yen dropped over 2% was in March 2020.
"As we are seeing sharp volatility in domestic and overseas
financial markets, it's necessary to maintain current levels of
monetary easing for the time being," Uchida said. His remarks
contrasted with Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments made last
week when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates.
"I cannot fathom why they needed to say that they won't hike
rates in turbulent times, unless of course the goal is to signal
no more hikes and to weaken the yen they just strengthened,"
said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index.
The rate hike from BOJ last week along with bouts of
interventions from Tokyo in early July led investors to bail out
of once-popular carry trades, in which traders borrow the yen at
low rates to invest in dollar-priced assets for higher returns.
That took the yen to a seven-month high of 141.675 per
dollar on Monday, from the 38-year lows of 161.96 it was
languishing in just at the start of July.
But Uchida's comments could still prop up the carry trade,
investors say, even with more room for unwinding of the trades.
"Uchida has saved the carry trade - for now," said Rong Ren
Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring
Investments.
"There are also other moving parts, but yes, Japan policy is
one of the important moving parts of the overall risk structure
in the market. The other important ones would be U.S. economic
data, which in turn informs Fed policy trajectory."
The swing in yen positioning seen over the last one month
was among the largest on record, according to strategists at JP
Morgan, with their models suggesting 65% of yen shorts have now
been covered as of Aug. 6.
This week's market volatility was exacerbated by a
softer-than-expected U.S. job report on Friday, and
disappointing earnings from major tech firms, sparking a global
sell-off in riskier assets as investors feared the U.S. economy
was heading for a recession.
Traders have also adjusted their expectations from the
Federal Reserve this year following the soft jobs report last
week, with nearly 105 basis points of easing anticipated by
year-end.
Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of the Fed cutting
rates by 50 bps in September, CME FedWatch tool showed, compared
with 85% chance a day earlier, with major brokerages also
anticipating a large rate cut in the next meeting.
Some analysts though expect the Fed to take a measured
approach.
"My sense is that the Fed is doing what it does, it wants
some reaffirmation of the trend from several data points ...
before drawing a conclusion," said Aninda Mitra, head of Asia
macro and investment strategy at BNY Advisors Investment
Institute.
"Whereas the market looked at one NFP print ... and jumped
to the conclusion that a rate cut was needed," Mitra said,
referring to last week's soft jobs data.
On Wednesday, the euro eased slightly to $1.0916, while
sterling last fetched $1.27135, not far from the
five-week low it hit in the previous session.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency
against six rivals, rose 0.27% to 103.26, inching further away
from the seven-month low of 102.15 it touched on Monday.
In other currencies, the Australian dollar was
0.61% higher at $0.65585, a day after the central bank ruled out
the possibility of an interest rate cut this year, saying core
inflation is expected to come down only slowly.
The Aussie has struggled in recent days, sinking to
eight-month lows on Monday in the wake of the global markets
meltdown but perked up on the day following BOJ comments.
The New Zealand dollar was up 0.98% at $0.60125
following strong jobs data.