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FOREX-Dollar extends gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans
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FOREX-Dollar extends gains while investors parse China's stimulus plans
Oct 13, 2024 8:57 PM

SINGAPORE, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its

gains in early Monday trades in Asia as a holiday in Japan

sapped liquidity, leaving China's somewhat disappointing weekend

stimulus announcements the focus of market attention.

The euro was down 0.13% at $1.0922 and the pound

nearly 0.2% lower at $1.3043. The dollar was flat on

the Japanese yen at 149.20.

The dollar index was at 103.10, up a touch and

closing in on last week's peak, its highest since mid-August, on

the back of traders reducing bets on further jumbo rate cuts by

the Federal Reserve at its remaining meetings this year.

Ahead of the onshore market opening, the yuan was

down more than 0.2% against the dollar, while the Aussie

, whose fortunes are closely tied to China, was down

0.16% at $0.67385.

China said on Saturday it will "significantly increase"

government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low

incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks'

capital as it pushes to revive sputtering economic growth.

Without providing details on the size of the fiscal stimulus

being prepared, Finance Minister Lan Foan told a press

conference there will be more "counter-cyclical measures" this

year.

"Markets are likely disappointed that China's Finance

Ministry did not unveil concrete additional stimulus," said

Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, in a note.

"The weekend press briefing mostly just reinforces our

existing expectations that China's policy pivot is worth a

one-time 3-4 cents lift in the Australian dollar's equilibrium,

of which about half has already been priced in."

Further moves are unlikely, he said, until there is progress

toward addressing excess housing, local government debt and

demographic challenges as China's population ages.

The yuan is down 0.9% against the dollar since

Sept. 24, when the People's Bank of China kicked off China's

most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic.

The CSI300 Index has broken records for daily

moves and is up 16% overall. But stocks have grown wobbly in

recent sessions as initial enthusiasm about economic stimulus

gave way to concerns about whether the policy support would be

big enough to revive growth.

"More time may be needed for more thought-out and targeted

measures," said Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC in

Singapore. "But those measures also need to come fast as markets

are eagerly waiting for them. Over expectations vs

under-delivery would result in disappointment..."

Currency moves in major markets were tepid last week. The

yen and euro both fell around 0.3% each, sterling shed 0.4% and

the dollar index climbed 0.4%.

U.S. Treasuries are unlikely to provide much of a lead on

Monday, since both Japan and the U.S. markets are closed for

holidays.

Last week's U.S. data showing slightly hotter-than-expected

consumer inflation but also higher weekly jobless claims have

left intact expectations for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis

points in November and December.

Traders next have on their radar Thursday's retail sales and

jobless claims data in the United States.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks later on Monday. He

is one of the voices who supports a larger rate cut because he

is now worried the pace of price increases is undershooting the

Fed's target.

The New Zealand dollar was down 0.15% at $0.61,

following last week's 0.8% drop after the central bank slashed

rates by a half point and hinted at further cuts to come.

Singapore's central bank kept its currency-based monetary

policy steady on Monday.

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