Jan 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields fell
and traders increased their bets on future rate cuts from the
European Central Bank after a raft of data pointed to a weak
economic outlook.
Borrowing costs inched higher early on Friday, after falling
the day before, as Thursday's European Central Bank policy
meeting confirmed investors' expectations for further monetary
easing.
Data from Germany suggested that the national inflation rate
could decline this month, although it had been expected to
remain unchanged, while French consumer prices increased
slightly less than anticipated to 1.8% year-on-year.
Germany's unemployment rate rose as the weakness of Europe's
biggest economy took its toll on the labour market.
"National and state level inflation data published so far
suggest that euro-zone inflation may come in a bit lower than
anticipated," said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at
Capital Economics.
"Services inflation in the largest (German) state, North
Rhine Westphalia, fell" despite a significant increase in public
transport inflation, he added.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro area's
benchmark, fell 4 basis points (bps) to 2.48%.
"We expect overall inflation in France to remain close to
the current level on average over 2025 before returning to close
to 2% in 2026," said Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist,
France and Switzerland at ING.
However, euro zone consumers and economists increased their
inflation expectations for this year, surveys showed on Friday.
Money markets priced in an ECB deposit facility rate at
1.95% at the end of 2025 -- which implies
three 25 bps cuts and a 20% chance of a fourth move by year-end
-- from around 2.05% before data. The depo rate is at 2.75%.
Germany's two-year bond yield, more sensitive to
ECB rate expectations, was down 8 bps at 2.115%, its lowest
level since Jan. 3.
Markets now await later in the session the U.S. Personal
Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal
Reserve's preferred measure of inflation.
The yield spread between OATs and Bunds -- a
market gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French
debt -- stood at 74.50 bps, after French Finance Minister Eric
Lombard said on Friday that talks on getting the 2025 budget
passed through parliament were "on the right track".
It widened to around 90 bps, its highest since 2012, in
mid-January and end-November amid fears that France would be
unable to cut its growing budget deficit.
Italy's 10-year yield was 3.5 bps lower at
3.57%. The gap between Italian and German yields
was at 108 bps, not far from its lowest level since October 2021
at 104.50 bps.