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Euro zone inflation slows to 2.2% in Aug
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Traders firm up bets on September ECB rate cut
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German state elections on Sunday
(Updated at 1036 GMT)
By Sruthi Shankar
Aug 30 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell across the
board on Friday as signs of cooling inflation in the bloc
cemented expectations of an interest rate cut by the European
Central Bank next month.
Data
showed
inflation in the 20 countries sharing the euro slowed to
2.2% from 2.6%, in line with expectations, as lower energy costs
pushed it closer to the ECB's 2% target after three years of
above-target price growth.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
euro zone borrowing costs, slipped 3.0 basis points to 2.253%,
while the interest rate sensitive two-year bond yield
dipped 1.4 bps to 2.351%.
"Today's data is fully consistent with the need for
another rate cut in September," said Chris Scicluna, head of
economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets.
"But we are maintaining a view for just two more rate
cuts this year - at the September meeting and December - and
that's because the Governing Council still has a relatively
hawkish bias. It is still concerned about services inflation
being too high."
Traders were pricing in a 98% chance that the ECB will
cut rates by 25 bps next month, while the odds of another such
move in October stood at 58%. Traders overall saw rate cuts of
64 bps from the ECB the end of the year.
Separate data sets
showed
German inflation fell more than expected in August, while
French
numbers came in slightly above forecasts and
Italy's
was in-line.
Euro zone inflation is falling as predicted, easing the
risk that further rate cuts would derail disinflation, ECB board
member Isabel Schnabel said, cautioning that risks to the
outlook still remain.
Another set
showed
the number of people out of work in Germany rose
significantly less than expected in August. Still, the
seasonally adjusted job rate remained stable at 6.0%.
Investors are now awaiting the release of U.S. personal
consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's
preferred inflation gauge, at 1230 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET).
The moves in European bond markets this month have
largely been dictated by shifting U.S. rate expectations,
particularly after a much weaker-than-expected payrolls data
early in August fuelled bets of bigger rate cuts by the Fed.
While recent data has eased fears of an imminent U.S.
recession, investors will be laser focussed on incoming data to
gauge how far and fast the U.S. central bank will cut rates.
Italy's 10-year yield was lower by 3.5 basis
points (bps) at 3.633%, and the gap between Italian and German
bunds was at 137.4 bps.
Investors will also be watching Sunday's election in two
states in
eastern Germany
- Thuringia and Saxony - where anti-establishment parties
are performing strongly in opinion polls.