Pakistan's National Assembly was dissolved late Wednesday by President Arif Alvi on outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s advice, marking an end to the current government’s tenure and paving the way for the next general elections. The tenure of the National Assembly was set to conclude on August 12.

In his farewell speech at the National Assembly, Shehbaz Sharif termed his 16-month-long tenure as the country’s chief executive the “most difficult test of my life", Dawn reported. "I never had to go through such a difficult test before in my 38-year-long (political) career as the country was mired in a severe economic crisis, oil prices remained high and there was political chaos,” he was quoted as saying.

What happens next?

Since Pakistan's National Assembly will be dissolved before time, the elections will be held in 90 days. As per the Constitution, if the assembly completes its tenure, then the general elections are held within 60 days.

If the summary is moved to dissolve the lower house of Parliament on August 9, then it would be liable to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to hold polls within 90 days.

However, the government and the Opposition need to agree on a name for a caretaker prime minister before the assembly gets dissolved.

Hunt for caretaker PM on

Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif constituted a five-member committee of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) last month to hold consultations on the selection of a caretaker prime minister, reports said.

As per the Constitution, the PM, as leader of the House, and the leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly have to initiate consultations.

In case they fail to reach a consensus, the matter would then be referred to a parliamentary committee, which is supposed to be constituted by the NA speaker.

If the parliamentary committee too fails in selecting a caretaker PM, then the Election Commission of Pakistan will be the final authority to pick the caretaker prime minister, GeoTV said.

The caretaker prime minister will administer the country until a new government is formed after the general elections.

Meanwhile, sources told Geo News that the much-awaited meeting between Shehbaz Sharif and Opposition leader Raja Riaz on Wednesday (August 9), to deliberate over names of caretaker premier, was yet again postponed.

Plans to delay Pakistan general elections?

Sharif said earlier this month that the upcoming general election will be held based on the new digital census. This move is likely to be opposed by other political parties in the coalition government as it will lead to delayed polls.

Federal Minister for Water Resources Syed Khursheed Shah was quoted by Dawn as saying that the new census required new delimitations which was not possible in three months.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), one of the major allies in the ruling coalition, also disagreed with the idea of selecting a caretaker prime minister from any political party.

Pakistan's first-ever nationwide population and housing digital census was carried out in March this year.

Pakistan has been reeling under a deep economic crisis, despite a breakthrough in its deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF approved a short-term financial package (and stand-by arrangement) worth $3 billion to Pakistan in June.

The inflation rate in the cash-trapped country soared to 28.3 percent in July, marking a significant increase of 3.46 percent, according to a report released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

Any more instability in Pakistan's political arena is likely to fuel the economic crisis in the country.

How does political instability affect economic growth?

Political instability in a country mostly impacts internal political decisions and a consensus or delay in the implementations of economic policies. Transparency in the working of the government might also act as a huddle to economic advancement.

In a blog post, the World Bank defines political instability as "the propensity of a government collapse either because of conflicts or rampant competition between various political parties". In Pakistan, this political instability tends to be persistent.

Explaining the link between the politics and economy of the country, the World Bank said, "...the uncertainty associated with an unstable political environment may reduce investment and the pace of economic development."

"On the other hand, poor economic performance may lead to government collapse and political unrest," it added, while noting that, "Not all forms of political stability are equally development friendly; much depends on the extent to which stability translates into good governance."

Meanwhile, an "IMF Working Paper" published in 2011 mentions that "political instability significantly reduces economic growth, both statistically and economically".

"Our results suggest that governments in politically fragmented countries with high degrees of political instability need to address its root causes and try to mitigate its effects on the design and implementation of economic policies. Only then, countries could have durable

economic policies that may engender higher economic growth," the paper said.

This finding emerged as the paper analysed a dataset covering up to 169 countries in the period between 1960 and 2004.

First Published:Aug 4, 2023 10:34 AM IST