(Updates with midsession trading)
By Matt Tracy
Dec 27 (Reuters) - The benchmark U.S. Treasury yield
rose on Friday as equities sold off in an otherwise quiet
holiday-shortened week, as investors look to unemployment
figures next week for signs of the economy's path in the New
Year.
Yields were little changed following the release of business
inventory data that fell in line with Reuters polling.
Retailers' inventories ticked up in November by 0.3% to $827.5
billion from $825.4 billion the previous month, U.S. Census data
on Friday showed. Wholesalers' stocks declined 0.2% to $901.6
billion from $903.8 billion in October.
Another factor in Treasury trading on Friday was a selloff
in U.S. equities, according to Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager
for global fixed income at asset manager Brandywine Global
Investment Management.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was last down
1.13% on the day, while the S&P 500 was down 1.53%.
"It represents a potential wealth transfer effect," McIntyre
said. "That could change people's outlook on the economy." A
more pessimistic economic outlook could in turn impact appetite
for Treasuries, he added.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note
ticked up 1.2 bps from late Thursday to 4.596%. It hit 4.641% on
Thursday, the highest level since May 2, before moderating after
a strong seven-year note auction in the afternoon.
The two-year note yield, which typically moves in
step with interest rate expectations, was last down 1.9 bps from
late on Thursday at 4.311%. It had reached 4.341% in early
morning trading.
The 30-year bond yield rose 4.3 basis points to
4.806% from late trading on Thursday.
Tax positioning by investors was likely one factor behind
the equities selloff, and could also influence Treasuries
trading heading in to the new year, according to Bryce Doty,
senior portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors.
"The market is thin and volatile," Doty said. "I see both
(equities and bonds) disturbed by tax season."
The closely watched gap between yields on two- and 10-year
Treasury notes, considered a gauge of growth
expectations, was at a positive 29.7 bps, up slightly from 27.1
on Thursday.
Based on the Fed funds futures term structure,
traders see minimal chance that the Fed will ease at its January
meeting, after delivering its third rate cut earlier this month
since the central bank became more accommodative in September.
The implied breakeven inflation rate on 10-year Treasury
Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) fell to
2.347% from 2.362% late on Thursday, indicating the market sees
inflation averaging just under 2.35% a year for the next decade.
According to LSEG data, traders do not see another interest
rate reduction until May and see a less than 50-50 chance of
another 25 basis points from there by year end.
Next week's data releases include pending home sales figures
for November on Dec. 30 and the S&P Case-Shiller home price
index for last month on Dec. 31. The latest initial jobless
claims data will follow on Jan. 2 after the New Year's holiday.