(Updated at 1500 EST)
By Karen Brettell
March 6 (Reuters) -
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell to one-month lows on
Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that
continued progress on inflation "is not assured," though the
central bank still expects to reduce its benchmark interest rate
later this year.
"If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely
be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some
point this year," Powell said in testimony to the House
Financial Services Committee.
"Powell pretty much straight out said that they're done with
rate hikes. That's a big risk the market was concerned with,"
said Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street
in Boston.
"Certainly, they feel that policy is restricted enough that
it's going to do its job. It's just a matter of how long it's
going to take," Loh added.
Investors are evaluating when the U.S. central bank is
likely to begin cutting rates.
Fed funds futures traders see a 70% probability the
first cut will come by June, according to the CME Group's
FedWatch Tool.
Friday's jobs report for February may provide the next
clues. It is expected to show that employers added 200,000 jobs
during the month, according to economists' polled by Reuters.
Private payrolls increased by 140,000 jobs last month
after rising by an upwardly revised 111,000 in January, the ADP
Employment report showed on Wednesday.
Other data on Wednesday showed that U.S. job openings fell
marginally in January, while hiring declined as labor market
conditions continue to gradually ease.
A Fed survey also found that U.S. economic activity
increased slightly
from early January through late February.
Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN Financial in New
York, said that markets are concerned that growth may
"overheat," but adds that this would only be problematic if
inflation is also high.
Thus, next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is
key for future Fed moves and market sentiment.
"If the employment report comes in mostly as expected it all
hinges on Tuesday's CPI, because that shows whether this strong
growth is something to be worried about or whether it is
something to celebrate," Compernolle said.
The CPI is expected to show that headline prices rose 0.4%
last month, while core prices gained 0.3%.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last down 3 basis
points on the day at 4.108%, and got as low as 4.079%, the
lowest since Feb. 7.
Two-year yields gained 1 basis point to 4.552%
after earlier dropping to 4.510%, the lowest since Feb. 15. The
inversion in the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
deepened by five basis points to minus 45 basis
points.
The amount banks and fund managers lent to the Fed in its
reverse repurchase agreement facility ticked up on Wednesday to
$456.85 billion.