March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday
on concerns over the potentially inflationary impact of tariffs
as trade wars between the U.S. and its trading partners
escalate, while a stock market recovery reduced safe-haven
demand for U.S. government debt.
Market participants are grappling with uncertainty over how many
of President Donald Trump's tariffs are going to be implemented
as well as whether they will slow economic growth and lead to a
renewed surge in prices.
"What you've had over the past week or two is a repricing of
what's called the Trump put lower for equities, while at the
same time, understanding that tariffs are probably here to stay
in some form and aren't just a negotiating tactic," said Zachary
Griffiths, senior strategist at CreditSights.
Trump said on Thursday he was not going to change his mind on
imposing sweeping reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners on
April 2.
A report on Friday found that U.S. consumer sentiment plunged in
March and inflation expectations soared amid worries about
tariffs.
Data this week has pointed to improving inflation, though some
underlying components in the release of the consumer price and
producer price reports for February were higher than expected.
That data will feed into the calculation of the Personal
Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve's
preferred inflation measure, which is due to be released on
March 28. The inflation data for February is also seen as
backward-looking, as it covers the period before tariffs were
put in place.
The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady when it
concludes a two-day meeting next Wednesday, but investors will
focus on Fed policymakers updated economic and interest rate
projections for signs of whether they are becoming more
concerned about the economic outlook.
"It'll be interesting to see how the Fed re-marks its growth
expectations and how they expect that to flow through to not
only inflation, but what they ultimately do with the policy
rate," Griffiths said.
Fed funds futures traders see the U.S. central bank as most
likely to resume its rate cuts in June.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday, reducing safe-haven demand for
U.S. bonds. Demand for Treasuries increased earlier this week
amid sharp stock declines, which helped to keep 10-year yields
near four-month lows reached earlier this month.
Higher German government debt yields, as Germany's conservatives
and two other parties agreed to a debt deal to dramatically
boost spending, meanwhile, helped to pull U.S. yields higher on
Friday.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was
last up 2.8 basis points on the day at 4.304%. The 2-year note
yield rose 3.5 basis points to 3.988%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
was last at 31.5 basis points.
Traders are also watching discussions over a possible
Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin
had sent Trump a message about his proposal for a ceasefire in
Ukraine via the U.S. president's special envoy and that there
were grounds for "cautious optimism."
The U.S. Senate on Friday was poised to pass a stopgap spending
bill and avert a partial government shutdown, removing one
short-term risk that was contributing to investor anxiety.