NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year Treasury
yields rose to a 12-week high on Monday as investors continued
to adjust to a more robust than previously thought American
economy, though there are no major U.S. economic releases this
week that are expected to drive market direction.
Yields have jumped since a much stronger than expected
employment report for September led investors to price out the
probability that the Federal Reserve will make additional large
interest rate cuts, following a 50 basis point reduction last
month.
"Before that employment report, the bond market was thinking
more likelihood of recession, more likelihood of aggressive Fed
easing," said Will Compernolle, a macro strategist at FHN
Financial in New York.
Traders are now pricing in 43 basis points of cuts by
year-end, indicating a less than certain chance that the Fed
will make 25 basis point cuts at each of its coming two
meetings.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday she sees more
rate cuts ahead for the central bank and suggested she sees no
reasons why the Fed can't also press forward with shrinking its
balance sheet.
Investors are also focused on geopolitical tensions in the
Middle East and the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, which
Compernolle notes "will cause a lot of volatility."
Benchmark 10-year note yields were last up 6.5
basis points at 4.14% and earlier reached 4.15%, the highest
since July 31.
Two-year note yields rose 3.6 basis points to
3.991%.
The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes
steepened to 14.7 basis points.
The Treasury Department will sell $13 billion in 20-year
bonds on Wednesday and $24 billion in five-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities on Wednesday.