(Updated at 1430 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year Treasury
yields fell to a 15-month low on Friday before paring back in
choppy trading as August's payrolls report failed to offer a
clear signal on the size of an expected Federal Reserve interest
rate cut later this month.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 jobs last month after
a downwardly revised 89,000 rise in July. Economists polled by
Reuters had forecast payrolls increasing by 160,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, from 4.3% the prior
month.
"The market's really struggling with this one because it's
really in the middle of what could be used as a justification
for either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut," said Gennadiy
Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities in New
York.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were last down 2.5
basis points at 3.708% and earlier fell as low as 3.648%, the
lowest since June 2023.
Interest rate-sensitive two-year yields fell 10.6
basis points to 3.646% and reached 3.595%, the lowest since
March 2023.
The closely watched yield curve between two- and 10-year
notes was at 6 basis points, the steepest since
July 2022.
The bond market is pricing in an aggressive path of rate
cuts over the coming year and a half, even as many economists
see the U.S. avoiding a recession.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing a 73% chance of a
25 basis point cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 meeting, and a 27%
chance of a 50 basis point reduction, according to the CME
Group's FedWatch Tool.
In total 251 basis points of cuts are priced in by the end
of 2025.
""The payroll report suggests there is no reason for the
Federal Reserve to rush," said Drew Matus, chief market
strategist at MetLife Investment Management in New Jersey. "The
labor market is slowing, but at a slow pace, allowing the Fed to
move more deliberately in September."
Some of the underlying details of Friday's report, including
downward revisions of 86,000 jobs gains for the past two months,
however, may be a warning that the labor market is not as
healthy as hoped.
"We do see the labor market really not just coming into
balance, but really starting to cool off quite significantly,
which could make the Fed quite nervous," said TD's Goldberg.
Fed policymakers on Friday said they are ready to lower
interest rates at the U.S. central bank's meeting in two weeks,
with one of them saying he could support back-to-back
reductions, or a bigger cut in borrowing costs, should the
cooling labor market need support.
The Treasury next week will sell $119 billion in
coupon-bearing supply, including $58 billion in three-year notes
on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22
billion in 30-year bonds.