The four-day week is all set to end on Friday but not without its own share of fireworks. Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will be announcing its interest rate decision on Friday and that has been the biggest trigger that has kept the bulls on the edge through the week.

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However, a cool off in oil prices along with oversold conditions on the charts brought some relief to the Nifty 50 on the weekly options expiry session on Thursday as the index was back above the 19,500 mark.

Although the Nifty 50 recovered some of the losses made earlier in the week, it is still 0.5 percent lower on a weekly basis. The index needs to close above the mark of 19,638 in order to prevent a weekly loss.

What Are The Experts Saying?

Globally, India remains the best two-year earnings growth story, said Vikash Jain of CLSA. "Moreover, India’s equity valuations versus bonds have remained unchanged and the metric is still shy of the warning reversal level," he wrote. The brokerage added HDFC Bank to its portfolio and further raised its overweight for banks. CLSA is underweight on IT and consumption.

Mahesh Nandurkar of Jefferies said that their meeting with 35 funds in Europe suggested that investor positioning on India is just a small overweight. "The multi-year capex cycle will mean new stock leaders will arise. We believe long term investors should buy property, banks & industrials in this near-term correction," he said.

What Do The Nifty 50 Charts Indicate?

Ruchit Jain of 5paisa.com said that there are no trend reversal signs yet on the Nifty 50 charts and that surpassing its immediate resistance zone of 19,660 - 19,760 could be a herculean task. For the current pattern, 19,450 will be the immediate support and a crucial level to determine the short-term trend, he said.

The Nifty 50 has formed a bullish 'island reversal' type pattern as per its daily chart, which is a positive indication for the short term and opens up the possibility for a move towards 19,726, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. "Any failure to sustain the highs is expected to trigger fresh weakness from the lower highs," he added.

Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities expects the positive momentum on the Nifty 50 to continue as long as it holds the level of 19,450. Immediate hurdles are seen at 19,610 and 19,675 on the upside. "The uptrend below 19,450 would be vulnerable," he said.

Nifty Bank More Vulnerable To The RBI Policy Outcome

All eyes will be on the Nifty Bank and as to how it reacts to the various measures that the Monetary Policy Committee will announce on Friday. Although the index snapped a two-day losing streak on Thursday, it is still down by nearly a percent for the week. The index will have to close above 44,584 to prevent a weekly loss, which is nearly 400 points away from current levels.

Immediate resistance for the Nifty Bank lies between the 44,400 - 44,500 zone, said Kunal Shah of LKP Securities. A break above this zone could trigger short-covering, potentially driving the index towards 45,000, which currently has the highest Open Interest concentration on the call side. "The RBI policy decision may influence the near-term direction of the index," he added.

Mehul Kothari of Anand Rathi continues to maintain that 43,800 on the downside is a very important support for the Nifty Bank, while the upside resistance of 44,500 remains the key for the index.

More Upside In Store For Suzlon?

Shares of Suzlon Energy ended at an upper circuit of 5 percent for the third day in a row, ending at the highest levels since 2014. The stock is now at Rs 29.50, which is almost the price target of Rs 30 that JM Financial had ascribed on the stock, while initiating coverage on it a few months ago. The stock is up 160 percent so far in 2023 and has rise 25 percent over the last one month.

"From a technical point of view, when you see this entire solar story playing out well, people would want to participate but given the track record of the company and how it has disappointed on many occasions - now that it is already run up, I think we would stay away from it at this point," Hemang Jani, market expert said.

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50's October futures added 6.3 percent and 6.53 lakh shares in Open Interest. They are now trading at a premium of 22.25 points from a premium of 33.15 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank's futures shed 4.5 percent and 1.19 lakh shares in Open Interest. Nifty 50's Put-Call Ratio is now at 1.14 from 0.96 earlier.

PNB, Delta Corp, Manappuram Finance and Indiabulls Housing Finance are the stocks that are in the F&O ban list from today's session.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for October 12 expiry:

For next Thursday's weekly expiry, the Nifty 50 call strikes between 19,500 and 19,800 have seen significant Open Interest addition. The 19,600 strike has seen the maximum Open Interest addition.

Nifty 50 on the Put side for October 12 expiry:

On the downside, the Nifty 50 put strikes between 19,300 and 19,600 have seen Open Interest addition for next Thursday's expiry. The 19,500 strike has seen the highest Open Interest addition.

Lets take a look at the stocks that added fresh long positions on Thursday, meaning an increase in both price and Open Interest:

Lets look at the stocks that added fresh short positions on Thursday, meaning a decrease in price but increase in Open Interest:

Here are the stocks to watch out for ahead of Friday's trading session:

PB Fintech: Sources tell CNBC-TV18 that SoftBank is likely to sell 2.54% stake worth $105 million via block deal. The share sale may happen at 0-2% discount to Thursday's closing price. As of June 2023, SoftBank holds a 4.39% stake in PB Fintech.

Bajaj Finance: Board approves raising funds to the tune of Rs 10,000 crore. Out of this, the company will raise up to Rs 8,800 crore through a QIP and the remaining Rs 1,200 crore through a preferential issue of convertible warrants to its promoter Bajaj Finserv.

Godrej Consumer Products: India business saw mid-single digit volume growth despite weak macros and adverse weather conditions. Home care volumes grew in mid-single digit, personal care grew in low single-digit. Indonesia business continued with double-digit volume and value growth. Expect mid-single digit volume growth on a consolidated level.

Adani Wilmar: Standalone business down 13 percent year-on-year, while volumes up 11 percent. Edible oil business down 19 percent with volumes up by 5 percent. Food and FMCG business up 25 percent with 18 percent volume growth.

Tata Motors: Jaguar Land Rover wholesales, excluding China JV up 29 percent year-on-year to 96,817 units. JLR expects positive free cash flow of around 300 million pounds in the September quarter.

Sun Pharma: To acquire nearly 37.76 percent stake in EzeRx Health Tech for Rs 28.69 crore. EzeRx is a non-invasive diagnostic and ancillary medical device company.

InterGlobe Aviation: Introduces fuel charges to offset rising ATF prices. Fuel charges on domestic and international routes effective from October 6, 2023.

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank: Total deposits up 43 percent year-on-year in the September quarter, while advances rise 27 percent to Rs 26,600 crore. Disbursements up 18 percent year-on-year.

What Are The Global Markets Indicating?

Markets in the Asia-Pacific have opened little changed as investors look towards the US jobs data later today that could set the tone for the US Federal Reserve's next interest rate move.

The Nikkei 225 and the Topix are currently flat but with a negative bias, while the Kospi is up 0.5%. The Kosdaq is up by nearly a percent in the first hour of trade.

Overnight, all three benchmarks on Wall Street ended flat with minor losses of up to 0.1%.

Foreign investors continued to remain net sellers in the market, while domestic institutions continued to buy.

First Published:Oct 5, 2023 9:12 PM IST