*
Brazil's economic activity falls less than expected in
July
*
Peru CB cuts benchmark rate for second time in a row to
5.25%
*
Goldman Sachs raises 12-mth target for MSCI EM stocks
index
*
Russia's central bank raises key interest rate by 100 bps
to 19%
*
Stocks rise 2.2%, FX adds 1.9%
(Updated 1945 GMT)
By Johann M Cherian and Shubham Batra
Sept 13 (Reuters) - Latin American currencies were set
for their best day in 20 months on a softer dollar on Friday, as
investors priced in the possibility of a bigger interest rate
cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, alongside a rate hike by the
Brazilian central bank.
MSCI's index tracking regional currencies
rose 1.9% to scale a two-week high as the dollar slipped.
Markets focused on comments from a former U.S policymaker
who argued that a 50-basis point rate cut is still an option
next week. Worries about a global growth slowdown had weighed on
currencies of the commodity exporters in the region recently.
On expectations that the Fed's monetary easing cycle could
broaden out rate cuts by central banks in developing markets,
Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target on the MSCI EM equities
index to 1175 - around 8.5% above current levels.
Brazil's real strengthened 1.2% after data showed
economic activity in the region's largest economy slowed less
than expected in July, reinforcing expectations that its central
bank will err on the side of caution on monetary policy next
week.
Bank of America analysts expect Brazil's benchmark rate to
rise from 10.50% currently to a peak of 12% in January 2025.
Copper producer Chile's peso rose 0.7%, with prices
of the metal hovering near a two-week high.
Peru's sol was up 0.5%, after its central bank
trimmed the benchmark interest rate as expected by 25 basis
points to 5.25%.
The sol has outperformed Latin American currencies and is
down 1.7% year-to-date.
"Peru's positive real policy rate and a current account
surplus on top of net FDI inflows should continue to support
(the sol's) regional outperformance," said Elias Haddad, senior
markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Oil exporter Mexico's peso strengthened 1.8%, to
touch more than a two-week high, while Colombia's peso
advanced 0.3% and hit a one-week high, as prices of crude oil
rose.
Traders kept a close eye on political developments in Mexico
after lawmakers approved judicial reforms earlier in the week -
the run up to which saw the peso hit its lowest levels in nearly
two years.
On the equities front, the index tracking Latam bourses
jumped 2.2% to log its best day in five weeks.
Heavyweight Brazil's Bovespa rose 0.8%, underpinned by
oil giant Petrobras.
Mexican stocks climbed 0.2% and Peru's benchmark
index added 1.6%, while Colombia stocks
edged 0.2% lower.
Elsewhere, Russia's rouble weakened 2%. The central
bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate by 100
basis points to 19%, saying that inflation remained stubbornly
high and a tightening was needed to reduce it.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies
Stock indexes Latest Daily % YTD %
change change
MSCI Emerging Markets 1082.60 0.65 4.97
MSCI LatAm 2249.53 2.21 -17.35
Brazil Bovespa 135043.54 0.76 0.64
Mexico IPC 52059.16 0.11 -9.28
Chile IPSA 6351.62 0.13 2.48
Argentina MerVal 1811744.3 1.211 94.87
6
Colombia COLCAP 1318.28 -0.15 10.30
Currencies Latest Daily % YTD %
change change
Brazil real 5.5630 0.97 -40.44
Mexico peso 19.2077 1.57 2.56
Chile peso 925.4 0.66 -33.58
Colombia peso 4186.21 0.32 -28.77
Peru sol 3.77 -0.29 -14.14
Argentina peso 959.0000 0.16 -98.06
(interbank)
Argentina peso 1245 2.81 -98.46
(parallel)