Dec 27 (Reuters) - Euro area benchmark Bund yields hit
their highest levels in more than five weeks in thin holiday
trading on Friday, with investors watching moves in U.S.
Treasuries.
Yields were on track for a yearly rise as markets expect
higher-for-longer interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic
after strong U.S. data and expectations for inflationary
policies from President-elect Donald Trump.
The benchmark U.S. Treasury note yield rose on Friday after
paring its gains a day earlier in the wake of a strong
seven-year note auction.
Euro area borrowing costs had increased on Monday before the
Christmas break, although European Central Bank President
Christine Lagarde said the euro zone was getting "very close" to
reaching the central bank's medium-term inflation goal.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, was up 8 bps at 2.404%, its highest since
Nov. 18. It was on track to end 2024 with a 36 bps increase.
"Bunds are close to their fair value but in 2025 they will
be more driven by fiscal policy (in Germany) as more bond supply
can increase their yields," said Gregoire Pesques, chief
investment officer of global fixed income at Amundi.
"However, it will depend on the balance between fiscal
spending and investments," he added. "For bund valuations, more
investments that support the economy will be seen as more
positive than just (fiscal) spending."
Germany will hold a general election in February 2025, with
investors wondering whether a new government will allow higher
public borrowing to prop up the flagging economy.
Germany's two-year yield, more sensitive to
expectations for ECB policy rates, rose 4 bps to 2.11% and was
on track for a 29-bps yearly fall.
Money markets are pricing in a European Central Bank deposit
facility rate of 1.97% in July 2025,
roughly in line with levels seen last week.
Italy's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the
euro area periphery, rose 8 bps to 3.582%, its highest since
Nov. 22, with the yield gap between BTPs and Bunds little
changed at 116 bps.
"We are still overweight in the so-called peripheral
countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain as their economies are
doing well while maintaining fiscal discipline," Amundi's
Pesques said.
French politics remained in the spotlight, with investors
trying to assess whether a new government there can tackle the
country's fiscal problems.
The yield spread between French government bonds and
safe-haven Bunds - a gauge of the risk premium
investors demand to hold French debt - rose slightly to 81 bps.
It recently hit its highest in more than 12 years at around 90
bps on worries that the new government will not be able to curb
a rising fiscal deficit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that
Moscow was open to hosting peace talks with Ukraine, while
Russia's arms control point man warned Trump's incoming
administration against resuming nuclear testing, saying Moscow
would keep its own options open.