financetom
British Pound
financetom
/
Forex
/
British Pound
/
Why a "Sterling Crisis" is Unlikely
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Why a "Sterling Crisis" is Unlikely
Mar 22, 2024 2:19 AM

Image © Pound Sterling Live

The UK is unlikely to suffer an Emerging Market-style crisis according to Capital Economics.

The independent research providers say in a new note, "concerns that the UK is setting itself up for an EM-style crisis are overblown."

The Pound and UK assets have been rocked over the past week as investors reacted to the 'mini budge' of Kwasi Kwarteng that saw a number of tax cuts announced.

Although the tax cuts themselves are largely affordable markets were spooked by the delivery: a cavalier set of moves to boost growth were not accompanied by any forecasts or independent oversight.

"The bigger concern is the government’s loss of fiscal credibility," says Vicky Redwood, Senior Economic Adviser to Capital Economics.

The Pound dropped sharply and bond yields surged, causing mayhem in some corners of the pensions market and widespread angst for mortgage holders.

"The strong message from markets is that credibility matters, and this is no time for unorthodox fiscal policy," says Kjetil Martinsen, Chief Economist at Swedbank..

Numerous economists have written notes warning UK assets were experiencing Emerging Market-style debts; in short, the makings of a Sterling crisis are emerging.

"True, its current account deficit is high, requiring financing through inflows of foreign capital. But while the external debts of EMs tend to be denominated in foreign currency, the UK’s external debts are denominated overwhelmingly in sterling," says Redwood.

She explains, "this allows the pound to become an important adjustment mechanism. And because the UK controls its own currency, a default on sterling assets is unlikely".

However, Redwood warns risk premia on sterling assets could stay permanently higher, leading to structurally higher interest rates across the economy.

This would especially be the case if fears grew about so-called 'fiscal dominance' i.e. the Bank of England effectively having to finance the deficit at the expense of meeting the inflation target.

"These higher interest rates might in turn weigh on private (and maybe even public) sector investment and drag on the trend rate of economic growth. In that case, GDP growth in the UK over the next couple of decades might end up underperforming our current forecasts," says Redwood.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 07 April 2014 Updated: The British Pound (GBP) is stable as we move into the second week of April. Selling on global equity markets has seen some relief being enjoyed against the commodity dollars. Meanwhile, we continue to see consolidation vs the Euro and US dollar. This period...
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 02 April 2014 Updated: Our Live coverage shows the UK pound to be in a period of consolidation at the start of April 2014. With the March PMI series missing expectations the GBP has found little by way of impetus. However, all eyes are on the release of...
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
Mar 22, 2024
By Gary HowesToday's Exchange Rates Below are the spot exchange rates as of the last update: Pound to euro exchange rate: Unchanged on a day-to-day basis at 1.2040.Pound to US dollar exchange rate: 0.01 pct down at 1.6390.Pound to Australian dollar rate: 0.36 pct higher at 1.8364.Pound to New Zealand...
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
Mar 22, 2024
Above: Image © Pound Sterling Live, original picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing St. On the eve of the UK budget, a Deutsche Bank analyst tackles the question of whether GBP investors ought to fear the return of the bond vigilantes and a repeat of the 2022 episode...
Copyright 2023-2024 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved