financetom
Australian Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Australian Dollar
/
RBA Snaps Australian Dollar / Yuan Relationship, But Recoupling Could Result in AUD Downside
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
RBA Snaps Australian Dollar / Yuan Relationship, But Recoupling Could Result in AUD Downside
Mar 22, 2024 2:17 AM

Image © Adobe Images

The Australian Dollar's RBA-inspired rally means it has broken its linkage with the Chinese Yuan, for now.

AUD is the week's top-performing currency courtesy of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to hike interest rates a further 25 basis points and accompanying guidance that further rate hikes are likely, underscoring Australian yields and AUD.

The domestic developments boosted Australian yields and supported the Aussie, allowing it to momentarily break free of global factors which are typically a strong driver.

Indeed, the below chart confirms a strong correlation between the AUD and China's Yuan (an obvious proxy for exposure to the Chinese economy). The vertical line falls on the date of the RBA decision and confirms a break in the AUD and CNY relationship:

Above: AUD/USD (top) and USD/CNY.

The chart's overwhelming message is nevertheless clear: what happens in China matters greatly for the commodity-exporting Australian economy and its currency.

The fortunes of the Yuan tend to pull the Australian Dollar lower and higher with the most recent trend of weakness resulting in a multi-year high for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.

The Yuan's decline extended last week, but the Aussie has gone higher. How long will this decoupling last, and does it suggest the Australian Dollar's strength has limits?

Given the enduring strength of the CNH and AUD relationship, a reversion to trend is likely, suggesting the Aussie is indeed potentially at risk of a reversion lower.

When this will happen, is of course harder to call, but it should be borne in mind by those selling Aussies.

Alex Loo, FX and Macro Strategist at TD Securities, says the People's Bank of China may favour some short-term underperformance in the domestic currency in the wake of softer China economic data and a firm USD.

The Yuan is set to end the week on a soft note owing to inflation data out of China that revealed CPI came in at 0.2% year-on-year.

"A combination of negative seasonal price pressures and loss of momentum in activity over the month limiting pricing power, dampened inflation. Further weakness in the industrials' commodity complex, oil and PMI input prices, suggested even more downward pressure on PPI though," says TD Securities in a regular currency briefing out Friday.

"The soft inflation data highlights growing pressure on the economy. Benign inflation taken together with softer activity data point to the potential for more monetary stimulus, and we think this will likely take the form of a further RRR cut soon. Overall we don't see much scope for other stimulus measures but continue to expect CNH underperformance in the near term," adds the note.

Any upcoming Chinese stimulus announcements could result in near-term CNH outperformance, which would bolster the AUD's RBA outperformance further.

However, it is unclear as to just how significant a boost any stimulus will be and whether it will endure, particularly given the limited impact of previous stimulus attempts in 2023.

The China backdrop for the Aussie Dollar, therefore, looks to remain unsupportive for a while yet.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate hit by strong USD, falling job vacancies data
Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate hit by strong USD, falling job vacancies data
Mar 22, 2024
By Will PetersThe Australian dollar (AUD) has come under pressure on Wednesday in an environment of US dollar strength. Also weighing is the latest set of ABS job vacancies data.A look at the global foreign exchange markets shows the Aus dollar to be under pressure: The pound sterling to Australian...
Australian Dollar in strong advance against British pound; GBP/AUD @ 1.8291
Australian Dollar in strong advance against British pound; GBP/AUD @ 1.8291
Mar 22, 2024
The Australian dollar to pound sterling exchange rate is therefore at 0.5467. (Note, the above are spot market quotes, your bank will affix a spread at their discretion. An independent FX provider will however guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please find out more here). The...
Bargain hunting spree pushes AUD higher
Bargain hunting spree pushes AUD higher
Mar 22, 2024
The ‘Aussie’ rallied against a number of its most traded peers including the Pound and US Dollar as traders embarked on a bout of bargain hunting. The currency pushed close to US90 cents as investors sought to buy the ‘Aussie’ on the cheap. The bout of buying meant that the...
Australian dollar exchange rates: AUD heads lower BUT beware the reversal
Australian dollar exchange rates: AUD heads lower BUT beware the reversal
Mar 22, 2024
By Rob SamsonThe Australian dollar (AUD) has weakened against all of its major peers on speculation that the currency’s recent leap to 90 US cents was overdone.The Aus dollar has fallen for the first time in four days versus the USD’, retreating from the highest level in almost a month,...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved