financetom
British Pound
financetom
/
Forex
/
British Pound
/
Deutsche Bank: Upside Risks Remain for British Pound Amid Positive Data and External Backdrop
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Deutsche Bank: Upside Risks Remain for British Pound Amid Positive Data and External Backdrop
Mar 22, 2024 2:19 AM

Image © Deutsche Bank

According to a recent report by Deutsche Bank, the market's expectations for the British Pound may have become overly optimistic in recent weeks.

While positive economic data and the absence of negative news have helped to push the pound to around its initial target of 1.25, Deutsche Bank's Shreyas Gopal warns that "most of the good UK news is now likely in the price."

Despite this caution, however, Gopal suggests that the risks to Deutsche Bank's GBP/USD forecasts for Q2 and Q4 are still skewed to the upside.

He notes that the Pound remains cheap, which has been the case "for nearly a year now."

The report suggests that the external backdrop and the convergence of the market to Deutsche Bank's view that UK growth expectations can be upgraded in line with other major economies for this year mean that the risks to the bank's Pound-Dollar forecasts are still skewed to the upside.

Investors will likely be closely watching the Bank of England's next meeting in May for any signals about the future of interest rates and the Pound's performance in the coming months.

The market raised its expectations for another 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Bank of England to just above 70% this week in reaction to a speech given by the Bank's economist Huw Pill.

Pill said the Bank needed to "see the job through" and "a pause" was not "necessarily" communicated by the Bank in its March guidance.

Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank notes the UK's latest current account data confirms its view that the UK's external vulnerabilities are now much reduced.

This is because gas prices have continued to fall and are tracking well below levels from this time last year.

Another reason is the UK's concentration of FDI within the energy sector means that returns have outperformed peers despite the UK's negative direct investment position.

"Repatriation of these profits into GBP, e.g. for dividend payments, could prove supportive," says Gopal.

"All up, the domestic good news may now be in the price," says Gopal, but given the external backdrop, the risks to Deutsche Bank's forecasts (Q2: 1.25, Q4: 1.28) "are still skewed to the upside."

Deutsche Bank likes being 'long' GBP against the U.S. Dollar and Swedish Krona.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
Mar 22, 2024
Above: Image © Pound Sterling Live, original picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing St. On the eve of the UK budget, a Deutsche Bank analyst tackles the question of whether GBP investors ought to fear the return of the bond vigilantes and a repeat of the 2022 episode...
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
Mar 22, 2024
By Gary HowesToday's Exchange Rates Below are the spot exchange rates as of the last update: Pound to euro exchange rate: Unchanged on a day-to-day basis at 1.2040.Pound to US dollar exchange rate: 0.01 pct down at 1.6390.Pound to Australian dollar rate: 0.36 pct higher at 1.8364.Pound to New Zealand...
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 02 April 2014 Updated: Our Live coverage shows the UK pound to be in a period of consolidation at the start of April 2014. With the March PMI series missing expectations the GBP has found little by way of impetus. However, all eyes are on the release of...
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 07 April 2014 Updated: The British Pound (GBP) is stable as we move into the second week of April. Selling on global equity markets has seen some relief being enjoyed against the commodity dollars. Meanwhile, we continue to see consolidation vs the Euro and US dollar. This period...
Copyright 2023-2024 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved