By Will Peters
Run up to BoC Decision:
The only notable move in the CAD comes against the British pound which has powered higher on a surprisingly strong unemployment data release.
Markets are betting that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates much sooner than intended - a pro-GBP scenario as rate yields are forced higher.
Some analysts are now forecasting a rise by early 2015.
A look at the forex markets shows:
The pound sterling to Canadian dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 0.5% higher than seen at last night's close at 1.8168.The euro to Canadian dollar exchange rate (EUR/CAD) is 0.03 pct higher at 1.4879.The US dollar to Canadian dollar rate (USD/CAD) is 0.08 pct lower at 1.0960.Be Aware: Our CAD quotes are taken from the wholesale inter-bank markets. Your bank will seek to affix a spread when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your banks offer, thereby delivering more currency. Please learn more here.
The outlook for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar favours the USD. However, future direction here depends on the outcome of today's BoC event.
"We anticipate a ‘dovish’ outcome today, with the BoC stopping short of formally adopting any sort of easing bias.
"Under the base case, we expect a knee-jerk reaction higher in USDCAD. This would be before some fairly sizeable profit-taking sets in.
"Along these lines, rates and FX will probably conclude that the chances of some type of easing are a little bit higher today than they were a few months ago, but not high enough to swing the very front-end of the OIS curve into aggressive action.
"We see the top-end of the range in USDCAD under the base case at 1.100-1.105, and the bottom end of the range at 1.080-1.085. An ‘easing’ or ‘contingent easing’ bias today will probably bring 1.105-1.110 into view.
"Under this scenario, we’d raise the bottom-end of our expected range for the remainder of the week from 1.080-1.085 to 1.090-1.092."