financetom
British Pound
financetom
/
Forex
/
British Pound
/
Bank of England Punishes the Pound
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Bank of England Punishes the Pound
Mar 22, 2024 2:19 AM

Above: File image of BoE Governor Bailey at a previous Treasury Select Committee appearance.

Just as the market was focussing on the New Prime Minister Liz Truss, the Bank of England enters the scene and hammers an already fragile Pound.

Pound exchange rates slumped sharply after markets rapidly lowered their bets for a 75 basis point interest rate hike at next week's policy decision following comments from members of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

"I judged that the more gradual pace of tightening will allow us to reduce those risks, because we will see the effects of the data and we can always stop," said MPC member Silvana Tenreyro. "So it's about going slowly when there is a lot of uncertainty. And that was my judgement."

Tenreyro was addressing Parliament's Treasury Select Committee in a midweek appearance made alongside Governor Andrew Bailey and the Bank's Chief Economist Huw Pill.

Following the testimony money market pricing showed the odds of a 75 basis point hike next week have fallen to 55%, from 71% earlier in the day.

The Pound tracked these expectations lower.

"We have seen another botched effort from the Bank of England today. They had one job which was to talk up the Pound and instead their waffling sees it at US $1.1425," says Shaun Richards, an independent economist who advises UK pension and investment funds.

The comments made by the panel reflects a Bank that remains reluctant to raise interest rates to beat inflation, instead hoping prices will fall back as the economy slows.

Testimony by Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests policy makers now expect measures to help households by prime minister Liz Truss will do the heavy lifting in fighting inflation.

"Net-net on the implications for headline inflation in the short term, I would expect that to see a decline," said Pill of the plans being floated by the government.

Bailey also cast doubt on when, or whether, the Bank would start to sell the bonds it purchased under quantitative easing, in a process known as quantitative tightening (QT).

Bailey said QT was “not intended, for obvious reasons, to cause a disruption to the market. The programme, which has been predictable and has a gradual element, is all conditioned on the logic that we need to behave in a way that avoids disruption”.

With the government about to sell more debt to fund its support package, the Bank appears keen to avoid pushing debt yields even higher by contributing the supply of bonds to the market.

While the Bank has raised rates to 1.75%, it is far behind where the market believes it should be, and it appears this will remain the case.

For an already weak Pound this is proving a problem:

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has fallen a percent on the day to 1.1515, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate is down by a similar amount to 1.14.

In fact, the Pound is the day's second worst performing major currency, coming in just ahead of the laggard Yen.

That Sterling is bottom-feeding with the Yen tells a story in itself: the Yen has been hammered because the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Central bank interest rate expectations therefore matter for currencies, and for the Pound the Bank of England is pulling all the wrong moves.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
The Pound "Shouldn't be Haunted by the Ghosts of 2022" Says Deutsche Bank
Mar 22, 2024
Above: Image © Pound Sterling Live, original picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing St. On the eve of the UK budget, a Deutsche Bank analyst tackles the question of whether GBP investors ought to fear the return of the bond vigilantes and a repeat of the 2022 episode...
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling in Steady Recovery After Services PMI Delivers a Blow
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 07 April 2014 Updated: The British Pound (GBP) is stable as we move into the second week of April. Selling on global equity markets has seen some relief being enjoyed against the commodity dollars. Meanwhile, we continue to see consolidation vs the Euro and US dollar. This period...
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
British Pound (GBP) LIVE: Sterling Set for Fresh Bounce vs USD, Bank of England Risk Ahead
Mar 22, 2024
Last Updated: 02 April 2014 Updated: Our Live coverage shows the UK pound to be in a period of consolidation at the start of April 2014. With the March PMI series missing expectations the GBP has found little by way of impetus. However, all eyes are on the release of...
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
British Pound Sterling Heads Sideways as Equity Markets Rally
Mar 22, 2024
By Gary HowesToday's Exchange Rates Below are the spot exchange rates as of the last update: Pound to euro exchange rate: Unchanged on a day-to-day basis at 1.2040.Pound to US dollar exchange rate: 0.01 pct down at 1.6390.Pound to Australian dollar rate: 0.36 pct higher at 1.8364.Pound to New Zealand...
Copyright 2023-2024 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved