03:20 PM EDT, 04/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $180, up $42, reflects a 7.5x multiple of the projected '24 operating cash flow, in line with VLO's historical average. We lift our '24 EPS view by $0.21 to $15.21 and '25's by $0.76 to $14.66. Based on S&P Capital IQ estimates, VLO's Q1 '24 EPS is expected to be $3.12 (Q1 earnings release on April 25). YTD, WTI has grown 20%, placing upward pressure on gasoline prices (+15%) and diesel prices (+5%). The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts retail gasoline to average $3.60/g in '24 (vs. $3.50/g in '23) and the same in '25, while retail diesel is expected to average $4.10/g in '24 (vs. $4.20/g) and $4.20/g in '25. The International Energy Agency expects over 1 mb/d in new refining capacity to come online in '24, which we believe could impact VLO's cash flow generation if new capacity successfully comes online this year. As a result, we see VLO with free cash flow in range of $6.3B in '24 (vs. $7.3B in '23). At the current valuation, we see limited upside and stay at Hold.