02:35 PM EDT, 04/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
We decrease our 12-month target by $11 to $156, assuming an EV/EBITDA of 7.3x our 2024 EBITDA estimate, above NUE's three-year average forward EV/EBITDA of 5.6x and above peers, which are trading at an average forward EV/EBITDA of 7.0x. We lower our 2024 EPS estimate by $0.64 to $12.23 and raise 2025's by $0.38 to $12.48. NUE posted Q1 adj. EPS of $3.46 vs. $4.45, $0.16 below consensus, driven by a top-line miss of 1%. NUE's downstream steel product shipments declined 5% Q/Q in Q1 and were down 15% Y/Y, while Q1 total steel shipments increased 3% Q/Q but were down 3% Y/Y. Q1 adj. EBITDA declined 20% Y/Y, despite an improvement in NUE's steel mill capacity utilization, which rose to 82% in Q1 vs. 79% in the prior-year quarter. We think the market is still assuming unsustainable earnings from recent years (during a post-pandemic spike in steel prices). Our DCF analysis indicates that NUE's current price assumes a five-year CAGR in free cash flow of nearly 12%, which is an unrealistic expectation, in our view.