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Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of Shake Shack Inc. To Sell From Hold
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Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of Shake Shack Inc. To Sell From Hold
May 6, 2024 12:25 AM

03:05 AM EDT, 05/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lower our 12-month target price to $94 from $104, 25x our 2024 EV/EBITDA estimate, near the lower end of SHAK's 23x-33x trading range, against our 2024 EBITDA of $165M. We raise our 2024 EPS estimate to $0.73 from $0.65 and 2025's to $0.95 from $0.86. SHAK posted Q1 adj-EPS of $0.13, in line with consensus. Revenue of $291M (+14.7% Y/Y) was in line with consensus. Adj-EBITDA rose to $35.9M, in line with consensus, with margin widening by 150 bps Y/Y to 12.4%. Same-store sales rose 1.6% vs. 2.0% consensus, with traffic down 2.1%. SHAK had solid results, mainly driven by higher menu prices, timely promotions, and Korean-inspired LTOs. However, we believe SHAK's valuation will come under pressure due to macro headwinds, following its recent leadership change. Key risks include higher beef costs caused by the spread of bird flu, underwhelming unit growth (only 8 out of 80 units built in Q1), more budget-conscious consumers, and lower returns from its kiosk channel (now the largest and most profitable).

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