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Research Alert: CFRA Lifts Opinion On Shares Of Progressive Corporation To Buy From Hold
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Research Alert: CFRA Lifts Opinion On Shares Of Progressive Corporation To Buy From Hold
Apr 15, 2024 12:42 PM

03:15 PM EDT, 04/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lift our 12-month target by $20 to $235, valuing shares at 19.0x our 2025 operating EPS estimate of $12.40 (up by $2.10) and at 21.3x our 2024 operating EPS (up by $2.10 to $11.05), versus its three-year average forward multiple of 21x and a peer average of 12.7x. Q1 operating EPS of $3.76 versus $0.66 topped our $2.40 EPS estimate and the $3.22 consensus view, amid 19% higher premiums on 7% more policies in force (in line with our forecast of 15%-20% premium growth) and 47% higher investment income. Profitability was aided by improved claim trends, evidenced by the Q1 combined loss-expense ratio of 86.1% versus 99.0%. We caution that while the Q1 underwriting results may not be a long-term trend, they reflect easing claim cost inflation and will likely provide shares with a catalyst. Currently trading at 18.7x our 2024 EPS estimate, with above peer top-line growth and underwriting profitability as well as best-in-class underwriting technology, we view the shares as undervalued versus historical averages.

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