01:40 AM EDT, 04/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $35, up $10, reflects a 12.8x multiple of EV to projected '24 EBITDA, a premium to AR's historical average. We think a premium is merited due to AR not having any major debt due until '26. We lift our '24 EPS view by $0.46 to $0.49 and '25's by $0.15 to $2.07. Q1 2024 EPS of $0.07 vs. $0.50 beat consensus by $0.03. Q1 production (3.4 Bcfe/d) grew by 5% Y/Y due to higher oil volumes (+25%). AR revised its '24 guide, with expected net liquids production volumes expected to be in range of 201 b/d at the midpoint (vs. prior midpoint of 198 b/d). AR noted that it added 10k b/d in new hedged positions for its expected '24 propane production (15% of expected total '24 propane production) at an average price of $0.80/g. However, it did not add any new hedged positions for natural gas production, which could impact cash flow generation should Henry Hub remain below AR's breakeven price of $2.27/MMBtu (EIA forecasts Henry Hub to average $2.20/MMBtu in '24 vs. $2.50/MMBtu in '23).