05:35 AM EDT, 05/23/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our target price of USD18 (from USD21) is 8.5x 2024 earnings per ADS (EPADS) estimate (5-year mean: 10.2x), reflecting our projected lower 2-year EPADS CAGR of 7% (5-year CAGR: 35%). Q1 2024 EPADS of CNY4.27 (+28% Y/Y, partly aided by share buyback) was in line with our expectation. Revenue was flattish Y/Y at CNY27.65 bln, with total active customers remaining unchanged at about 43 mln members. Net margin rose 1.6 ppts to 8.4% due to improved sales mix and lower cost of sales, while operating expenses were stable (higher fulfillment costs offset lower SG&A expenses). We forecast revenue to grow 4%-5% p.a. in 2024/2025 on our projected increase in the number of active customers and a pick-up in consumer discretionary spending. We expect net margin to stabilize at about 7.2%-7.5% in 2024/2025 as cost optimization efforts will balance an increase in marketing spending (to entice buyers amid intensifying competition in the e-commerce space). We keep our projected 2024/2025 EPADS at CNY15.26/CNY16.69.