09:35 AM EDT, 04/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- CFRA, an independent research provider, has provided MT Newswires with the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
Our 12-month target of $25, up $3, reflects a 7.3x multiple of EV to projected '24 EBITDA, below its peers. We think a peer discount is merited due to CNX's net debt-to-capital ratio of 35% (vs. the peer average of 24%). We cut our '24 EPS view by $0.19 to $1.52 and '25's by $0.27 to $1.73. Q1 EPS of $0.45 vs. $0.55, beat consensus by $0.06. Revenues (net of derivatives) fell 29% Y/Y due to weaker Henry Hub pricing (-32% in Q1). Production (1.5 Bcfe/d) rose 2% Y/Y due to higher NGL volumes (+11%). CNX revised its '24 guide, with production expected to be in the range of 1.5 Bcfe/d at the midpoint (vs. the prior midpoint of 1.6 Bcfe/d), while reducing the capex midpoint to $550M (vs. $600M). In addition, CNX grew its hedge book on expected '24 natural gas production to 86% (vs. prior 82%) at $2.89/MMBtu. The EIA forecasts Henry Hub to average $2.20/MMBtu in '24 (vs. $2.50/MMBtu in '23). CNX kept its '24 FCF guide at $300M (vs. $136M in '23), which we think is fair, assuming natural gas prices do not recover.