It is redeeming to see that the Nifty and the Sensex are cruising at record highs, something we predicted quite early in July 2018. The new highs have come about on the back of sustained inflows into mutual funds.

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This asset class has replaced FIIs as the prime movers of the markets. MF SIPs are handy to absorb the selling pressure by FIIs, who have been net sellers in this calendar year.

It is interesting to see retail investors displaying maturity by continuing with their SIPs despite the turmoil in mid and small-cap stocks.

With the assets under management (AUM) of MFs being less than 12 percent of our GDP, there is ample room for them to increase. A developing economy like South Africa has an AUM to GDP ratio of 54 percent.

Here are some reasons for why Indian markets are at record highs:

Financialisation of savings:

Technology has enabled the banking and financial services sectors to penetrate rural areas, and the trend of moving from physical assets to digital/financial assets is fast catching on.

This should channelise more savings into equities, as the percentage of money going into this asset class rises from the current 1.2 percent of the Gross National Disposable Income.

Earnings catching up:

Earnings are also catching up fast. The Nifty earnings, which grew at a CAGR of 3 percent between 2013 and 2017, increased by 8.5 percent in FY18, and this year, the growth is likely to be in high teens. This should make valuations look comfortable.

Crude Oil:

Crude oil has fallen 8 percent from its recent high of $ 80 a barrel. This augurs well for our economy. The rupee remains a concern but is likely to be tethered if crude continues to behave.

Mid-cap and small-cap recovery:

The mid-cap and small-cap space has borne the brunt of re-categorization of MF schemes, additional surveillance measures, and stretched valuations in recent times. With the improvement in earnings, we believe select mid-caps and small-caps are on track for decent recovery in the next 12 months.

Political Jitters:

Political jitters have also reduced after the no-confidence motion against the government fell through earlier this month.

What is the way ahead?

Investors should remain in large-cap stocks with low or no debt, cash flow-positive companies, or invest through SIPs in ETFs or select MFs.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own and not that of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Source: Moneycontrol.com

First Published:Jul 27, 2018 7:54 PM IST