The India Meteorological Department estimated 83.5 cm of rainfall in this monsoon — expecting it to be in the normal category. Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Former Agricultural Secretary Siraj Hussain said he believes that if the time and distribution of the rainfall are good, a shortfall of 4-5 percent will not matter.

“August and September are very important. One hopes that there will not be too much deficiency and as I said, if the time and the spatial distribution is good, then even a shortfall of 4 or 5 percent could not matter much,” Hussain said.

However, he also acknowledged that we cannot be certain that the monsoon will behave exactly the same way as predicted.

“I am happy that IMD is giving forecast of a normal monsoon much better than the forecast issued by Skymet yesterday. But I must add that monsoon science still depends on models of various kinds and artificial intelligence data of previous years and so on. But we cannot be certain that monsoon will behave exactly in the same manner.”

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The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD said on Tuesday.

While North India is relatively well irrigated, the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka are adversely affected by higher rainfall. This is due to the fact that the higher rainfall in these states often leads to flooding, which damages crops and infrastructure.