financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
NY Fed: Consumer outlook on longer-term inflation hit snag in February
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
NY Fed: Consumer outlook on longer-term inflation hit snag in February
Mar 11, 2024 8:29 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The public's expectations around the longer-run trajectory of inflation deteriorated in February, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.

While inflation a year from now was seen holding steady at 3%, respondents to the bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said that they see inflation three years from now moving to 2.7% from January's 2.4%, with inflation in five years at 2.9%, from the prior month's 2.5%.

The rise in the three-year expected rate of inflation was the first month-over-month gain since last September, while the month-over-month rise in the five year was the first since last August.

The deterioration in longer-run inflation expectations is likely to unsettle Federal Reserve officials, who are now in the preparation phase for their March 19-20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. While Fed officials are almost certain to hold rates steady at the gathering, many policy makers have said they expect to cut rates at some point later this year as inflation pressures have been moderating back toward the 2% target.

Fed officials believe that where the public expects inflation to go strongly influences where it stands today. They've repeatedly flagged the relative stability of longer-term expectations as a reason they are confident inflation will return to the target.

Officials have also warned the road to lower inflation will likely be uneven and bumpy. Some recent inflation data has proven stronger-than-expected, which may have influenced the recent round of expectations data.

Despite the shift in longer-run expectations some of the details of what the public projects for price pressures was more benign. Survey respondents said they see ebbing price rises for medical care and college while future food price gains were seen holding steady.

Respondents saw last month a decline in year-ahead rent price gains to 6.1% from January's 6.4%, the lowest reading since December 2020. Home price increases were seen flat at 3% and gasoline prices were seen rising only modestly compared to January at 4.3%.

The report also found that those who most strongly projected rises in longer run inflation expectations had at best high school degrees, while noting a declining overall disagreement about the future path of inflation.

Survey respondents in February held steady on their expectations for future income and earnings growth, while boosting their spending expectations. Respondents were a little more downbeat on job market prospects and said last month that their views on credit access had also sagged.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Global equity funds draw fourth weekly inflow amid rate cut bets
Global equity funds draw fourth weekly inflow amid rate cut bets
Jul 19, 2024
(Reuters) - Global equity funds attracted inflows for a fourth successive week in the seven days to July 17, spurred by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut after recent data showed cooling inflation, fuelling a stock market rally. According to LSEG data, investors acquired global equity funds worth a net $26.51 billion during the week, logging their biggest weekly...
US Dollar Rises Early Friday Ahead of Light Data Schedule
US Dollar Rises Early Friday Ahead of Light Data Schedule
Jul 19, 2024
07:42 AM EDT, 07/19/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday ahead of a light data schedule leading into the weekend. State-level unemployment data for June is scheduled to be released at 10:00 am ET, followed by an update to the St. Louis Federal Reserve's gross domestic product Nowcast estimate around midday, the...
Fed faces wave of data before deciding on end-of-summer rate cut
Fed faces wave of data before deciding on end-of-summer rate cut
Jul 19, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Investors have locked onto the U.S. central bank's Sept. 17-18 meeting for the start of interest rate cuts that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said will represent a consequential change in policy from the pandemic-era battle against inflation to a phase of easing monetary policy. Where the process ends up is uncertain. Shifts in supply and...
Analysis-Big US bond managers steer clear of long-dated government debt
Analysis-Big US bond managers steer clear of long-dated government debt
Jul 19, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A number of U.S. bond managers at firms in charge of trillions of dollars of assets are steering clear of long-term U.S. government bonds as they expect fiscal worries to spur periodic bouts of volatility. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, briefly rose on inflationary and fiscal concerns in the aftermath of U.S....
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved