financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
NY Fed: Consumer outlook on longer-term inflation hit snag in February
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
NY Fed: Consumer outlook on longer-term inflation hit snag in February
Mar 11, 2024 8:29 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The public's expectations around the longer-run trajectory of inflation deteriorated in February, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.

While inflation a year from now was seen holding steady at 3%, respondents to the bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said that they see inflation three years from now moving to 2.7% from January's 2.4%, with inflation in five years at 2.9%, from the prior month's 2.5%.

The rise in the three-year expected rate of inflation was the first month-over-month gain since last September, while the month-over-month rise in the five year was the first since last August.

The deterioration in longer-run inflation expectations is likely to unsettle Federal Reserve officials, who are now in the preparation phase for their March 19-20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. While Fed officials are almost certain to hold rates steady at the gathering, many policy makers have said they expect to cut rates at some point later this year as inflation pressures have been moderating back toward the 2% target.

Fed officials believe that where the public expects inflation to go strongly influences where it stands today. They've repeatedly flagged the relative stability of longer-term expectations as a reason they are confident inflation will return to the target.

Officials have also warned the road to lower inflation will likely be uneven and bumpy. Some recent inflation data has proven stronger-than-expected, which may have influenced the recent round of expectations data.

Despite the shift in longer-run expectations some of the details of what the public projects for price pressures was more benign. Survey respondents said they see ebbing price rises for medical care and college while future food price gains were seen holding steady.

Respondents saw last month a decline in year-ahead rent price gains to 6.1% from January's 6.4%, the lowest reading since December 2020. Home price increases were seen flat at 3% and gasoline prices were seen rising only modestly compared to January at 4.3%.

The report also found that those who most strongly projected rises in longer run inflation expectations had at best high school degrees, while noting a declining overall disagreement about the future path of inflation.

Survey respondents in February held steady on their expectations for future income and earnings growth, while boosting their spending expectations. Respondents were a little more downbeat on job market prospects and said last month that their views on credit access had also sagged.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
July Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Sharply
July Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls Sharply
Aug 22, 2024
08:39 AM EDT, 08/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's monthly National Activity Index fell to a reading of minus 0.34 in July from minus 0.09 in June, compared with expectations for a reading of 0.03 in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET. The three-month moving average held steady at minus 0.06....
Factbox-Major brokerages expect Fed to lower rates in September
Factbox-Major brokerages expect Fed to lower rates in September
Aug 22, 2024
(Reuters) -Most brokerages forecast a 25 basis points interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September, while J.P. Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo expect a 50 bps rate cut next month. The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a near three-year high of 4.3% in July, which stoked fears of a recession earlier in August. However, last week's soft jobless...
What to look for at Fed's Jackson Hole symposium
What to look for at Fed's Jackson Hole symposium
Aug 22, 2024
(Reuters) - Central bankers from around the world fly into Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week to attend what has become the globe's premier economic gathering, the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual symposium in Grand Teton National Park. The event draws keen investor attention, and - depending on what the world's most influential monetary policymakers say in formal remarks and in...
Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, Indicating Slowdown In Labor Market Conditions
Initial Jobless Claims Rise More Than Expected, Indicating Slowdown In Labor Market Conditions
Aug 22, 2024
Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, indicating a slight cooling in labor market conditions compared to the previous week, when unemployment benefits came in lower than anticipated. Weekly Unemployment Benefits Report: Key Highlights Initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 17, up from an upwardly revised 228,000 in the previous week and missing the...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved