financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Jerome Powell Tells Congress The Fed Could Cut Rates If Either Of These Things Happen: 'Inflation Has A Certain Momentum'
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Jerome Powell Tells Congress The Fed Could Cut Rates If Either Of These Things Happen: 'Inflation Has A Certain Momentum'
Jul 10, 2024 10:00 AM

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell painted a very clear picture of what needs to happen before the central bank lowers rates during the second day of testimony in front of Congress.

What To Know: Powell kicked off his semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. He began his second day of testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday as part of the Fed’s semi-annual monetary policy report.

Investors are paying close attention to Powell’s comments, looking for clues about the central bank’s current policy outlook. Powell stressed he would not be “sending any signals” about the timing of any potential policy adjustments, but he laid out what needs to happen for him to support a rate cut very clearly.

“What we’ve said is that we want to be more confident, we want to have greater confidence — and that means more good inflation readings — that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%, greater confidence that that is the case,” Powell said.

Although inflation is part of the story, Powell reminded the committee that the Fed has a dual mandate that includes employment.

“I could also see us cutting … if we saw unexpected weakening in the labor market,” Powell added.

Check This Out: June Inflation Report In Focus: Could It Seal The Deal For September Rate Cut?

Powell explained that he now believes the risks to the Fed’s two mandates are more in balance. For a long time, the central bank focused heavily on the inflation mandate, but the labor market has now come back into focus and is in balance with “pretty much where it needs to be,” he said.

Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed needs to gain more confidence that inflation is heading sustainably toward 2%. He also acknowledged that the central bank would not wait until it actually gets to 2% to begin adjusting policy, citing the “momentum” of inflation.

“You don’t want to wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2% because inflation has a certain momentum. You wouldn’t wait that long. If you waited that long you probably waited too long because inflation will be moving downward and will go well below 2%, which we don’t want,” Powell said.

Why It Matters: The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading showed that inflation fell from 3.4% to 3.3% on a year-over-year basis in May, below average economists forecasts of 3.4%. Month-over-month inflation was flat, which was also below projections for a 0.1% rise.

CPI data for June is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. The consensus estimate is calling for inflation to have fallen to 3.1% on a year-over-year basis last month. If inflation continues to fall, it could set the stage for a potential rate cut in September.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is currently projecting a 71.8% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on Sept. 18. Projections are likely to move one way or the other following Thursday’s inflation data.

JPMorgan's trading desk released a new note this week calling for a positive reaction in the S&P 500 if the month-over-month CPI reading comes in up 0.25% or below. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is currently trading at all-time highs ahead of Thursday’s key inflation numbers.

Read Next:

June CPI Report On Traders’ Radar: Analysts Predict S&P 500 Move For Thursday Under Different Inflation Scenarios 

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
UK economy: A crisis in the making for some time, with India trade deal offering hope
UK economy: A crisis in the making for some time, with India trade deal offering hope
Nov 13, 2022
The British-Asian former finance minister, who took charge at 10 Downing Street last month with the promise to fix the fiscal errors of predecessor Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget, has pledged to get a grip on the soaring inflation as a priority and warned of tough tax and spending decisions ahead.
Britain to proceed with revaluation of commercial real estate in 2023, says Jeremy Hunt
Britain to proceed with revaluation of commercial real estate in 2023, says Jeremy Hunt
Nov 17, 2022
"Nearly two thirds of properties will not pay a penny more next year and thousands of pubs, restaurants and small high street shops will benefit," he said. Hunt added that a new government funded Transitional Relief scheme would benefit around 700,000 businesses.
Nirmala Sitharaman meets Janet Yellen, says will increase cooperation with US to address economic challenges
Nirmala Sitharaman meets Janet Yellen, says will increase cooperation with US to address economic challenges
Nov 11, 2022
Finance MInister Nirmala Sitharaman said the India-USA economic and financial partnership meeting in New Delhi today will lend greater vigour to both countries' economic relationship, strengthen their business-to-business links as well as facilitate a coordinated policy stance to address global economic challenges. 
UK economy set to shrink next year, says Jeremy Hunt in budget speech
UK economy set to shrink next year, says Jeremy Hunt in budget speech
Nov 17, 2022
The new forecast is for gross domestic product to contract by 1.4 percent next year compared with a projection for growth of 1.8 percent in the previous outlook published in March by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Copyright 2023-2024 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved