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Federal Reserve Watch for May 24: Natural Rate of Interest Could be Lifted by Rising Supply of Treasuries
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Federal Reserve Watch for May 24: Natural Rate of Interest Could be Lifted by Rising Supply of Treasuries
May 24, 2024 11:42 AM

02:25 PM EDT, 05/24/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voter) said that the rising supply of Treasury securities could put upward pressure on the long-term natural interest rate, or R-star, but he said that only time will tell how much that impact would be, if at all. Waller did not make any comments on monetary policy or the economy in his prepared remarks.

Recent comments of note:

(May 23) Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (voter) said that improvement in inflation has slowed, suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee needs more patience before bringing down interest rates.

(May 22) Minutes of the FOMC's April 30-May 1 meeting showed discussion about keeping rates higher for longer, and possibly lift rates if inflation progress does not reverse, but those discussions happened after a series of high inflation readings and before April data was released that showed slower inflation and employment growth.

(May 21) Waller said recent inflation improvements, while welcome, have been small and that he needs to see "several more months" of progress before he can consider easing policy. Later in the day, Waller said that he could see cutting rates at the end of the year or early in 2025.

(May 21) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voter) said that she will need to see more evidence that rates are coming down, while Boston Fed President Susan Collins (nonvoter) said that patience is called for at this point. At the same conference, Atlanta's Bostic said that the FOMC needs to remain cautious and is willing to wait longer to begin cutting rates, Reuters reported.

(May 20) Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr (voter) said that the FOMC is in a "good position" to hold policy steady until there is more evidence that inflation is slowing toward the 2% goal.

(May 20) Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson (voter) repeated that monetary policy is in restrictive territory and said that he will assess incoming data when making judgements about future monetary policy.

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