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Lira dropped 12.7% in early trade to record low of 42 to
the
dollar
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International bonds tumble more than 1 cent
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Stocks down around 6% in worst day since late 2023
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Analysts worried about knock on for monetary policy
(Adds throughout with new stock levels, new analyst comment)
By Ezgi Erkoyun and Canan Sevgili
ISTANBUL, March 19 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira fell as
much as 12.7% and touched a new all-time low of 42 to the dollar
on Wednesday, with bonds and stocks also tumbling sharply, after
authorities detained President Tayyip Erdogan's main political
rival.
The move against Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, was
called "a coup attempt" by the opposition and appears to cap an
aggressive months-long legal crackdown on opposition figures
across the country which has been condemned as a politicised
attempt to silence dissent.
Imamoglu was expected to be named as the main opposition's
presidential candidate within days.
The lira traded at 38.90 to the dollar at 1016
GMT, from a close of 36.67 on Tuesday, having recouped some of
the losses from the all-time low it hit earlier - but still
having had its biggest decline since July 2023. The earlier
tumble to 42 marked one of the lira's largest absolute intraday
moves on record.
Turkey's international government bonds also came under
pressure with longer-dated maturities suffering the sharpest
falls. The 2045 maturity fell 1.6 cents to be bid at 85.117
cents, its lowest level since
"In Turkey this morning, bonds and FX are coming under
pressure after a potential presidential candidate, the mayor of
Istanbul, was arrested," said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX &
fixed income strategist at ING.
"(Turkey's lira) is the most heavily positioned carry-trade
in the emerging markets space at the moment in our view, and a
sharp move could potentially lead to further outflows. On the
other hand, we should see local banks providing some FX
support."
MONETARY POLICY
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said they were doing
everything necessary to ensure healthy functioning of the
markets, without giving further details.
Bankers calculate that the Turkish central bank sold a
minimum of $5 billion in FX after lira's crash, while some say
it may have already reached $10 billion for the day.
Analysts and investors were also concerned about the knock
on effect for monetary policy, worrying that the sharp decline
in the lira could delay or halt the rate-cutting cycle since the
central bank has been ensuring real appreciation of the currency
for months.
The central bank had in December embarked on an easing cycle
for the first time after an 18-month tightening effort that
reversed years of unorthodox economic policies and easy money
championed by Erdogan, which had seen the economy run red hot
and inflation exceeding 70%. Erdogan has supported the steps by
the central bank for a more orthodox policy.
"With this FX shock they need to keep rates where they are
for now," one banker said.
Stocks also crashed, reflecting investor worries over rule
of law. Turkish blue-chip stocks fell by nearly 6%, set
for their worst daily performance since late 2023.
The banking sub-index declined 9.67%. Borsa Istanbul
said trading was halted temporarily after the main BIST 100
index fell 6.87% in early trading and the market-wide circuit
breaker was triggered.
"A wave of selling was triggered after Imamoglu's diploma
was annulled and he was detained. There have been foreign
investor inflows in recent days ... but political uncertainty
currently prevails and concerns about foreign investors leaving
the country have increased," Serhat Baskurt, algorithmic
operations manager at ALB Yatırım, said.
Baskurt said he expected the decline on the stock exchange
to continue over the coming days.
Borsa Istanbul said that the uptick rule on short sale
transactions for the BIST 50 index would be used on Wednesday.
The rule requires short sales to be conducted at a higher price
than the previous trade.