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TSX Closer: The Index Posts a Gain Despite Fresh Tariff Threats From Donald Trump
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TSX Closer: The Index Posts a Gain Despite Fresh Tariff Threats From Donald Trump
Feb 10, 2025 1:32 PM

04:26 PM EST, 02/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday even as Donald Trump stirred up more tariff worries as he plans to place a 25% tariff on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum, including from Canada, the largest exporter of the metals to the country.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 215.95 points to close at 25,658.86. Among sectors, Energy, up 2.04%, Battery Metals, up 2.13%, and Information Technology, up 1.71%, were the biggest gainers.

Trump will formally sign an executive order imposing on the tariffs today, expected at 5.30 pm eastern time, according to multiple reports.

Among individual stocks, Algoma Steel ( ASTL ) was down 1.3% on the tariff threat. BMO noted total steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. were $35 billion in the past year, or roughly 1% of GDP. It also noted that tariff coverage might vary, as oiit did 2018 during the first Trump Administration. In that episode, Statistics Canada reported that tariffs covered $16.7 billion versus total category exports of around $25 billion.

Toronto-Dominion Bank ( MLWIQXX ) rose 3.3% and was the most actively traded issue on Monday after saying it will sell its entire 10% stake in U.S. wealth manager Charles Schwab (SCHW), worth an estimated US$15.4 billion, through a registered offering and US$1.5 billion share repurchase by Schwab. TD also said it would use $8 billion of the proceeds to buy back 100-million of its shares. The rest will be invested in the bank's businesses.

Still, the resources heavy index was buoyed by elevated commodity prices, while Rosenberg Research published research that said TSX and S&P 500 divergence is expanding and added "U.S. investors should migrate north." Rosenberg looked at equities and said it has a "clear bias" towards Canadian equities in North America, with model scores improving for the third month in a row to 49.4 from 43.4.

"This comes after on and off tariff threats reduced investor positioning (contrarian positive), which eventually were delayed (and may never happen)," it noted. Rosenberg Research continues to see a "generally more optimistic tone" on the TSX since June, especially relative to the U.S. as monetary policy diverges.

At the sector level, Energy jumped to third in the Rosenberg Research rankings, due to strong momentum, with Health Care ranked first, Financials second, with Tech, and Materials following Energy. "Outside of Energy there continues to be a notable defensive/defensive-growth sector tilt (reminder that over half of Materials is weighted towards precious metals)," the research added.

Rosenberg said its commodity model declined in January for the second month in a row to 56.4, hitting a 16-month low in the process.

According to the research, individual commodities that screen at the top of its rankings include soybeans, cocoa, wheat, and aluminum. WTI crude continues to hover in the middle of the list, joined by natural gas, "after a massive run-up from the nearby lows".

Elsewhere, Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) noted that on Feb.3, President Trump postponed planned tariffs of 25% of Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S., with Canadian crude oil only subject to a lesser 10% tariff. WFII believes U.S. refiners will continue purchasing crude oil from Canada, given few viable alternative sources for heavier grades of crude, which could lead to higher gasoline prices if tariffs are enacted.

Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, rebounding from three days of losses. WTI crude for March delivery closed up $1.32 to settle at US$72.32 per barrel, while April Brent crude was last seen up $1.18 to US$75.84.

Gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Monday, pushing close to the US$3,000 per ounce mark as fresh tariff threats from the Trump Administration spur safe-haven buying. Gold for April delivery was last seen up US$46.80 to US$2,934.40 per ounce, up from the Feb. 5 record close of US$2,893.00.

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