A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Stella Qiu.
No one could have guessed how this turbulent week in the
markets would end, but remarkably it's only taken one weekly
U.S. jobless claims report to undo most of the damage after
fears of a looming U.S. recession had sent investors into panic.
On Friday, Asia's share markets rallied across the board,
tracking a strong rebound on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei gained
1.6% and has erased most of Monday's 13% loss, for a likely
weekly drop of just 1.5%.
As it stands now, the yen is set to finish down about 0.5%
against the dollar this week, after surging to a seven-month
peak on Monday that spurred the unravelling of yen carry trades,
a driving force in the recent global market rout.
The carry trade is far from dead, though, with JPMorgan
estimating this popular trade had reached perhaps $4 trillion.
Even the much-feared China slowdown story is turning around
a bit. Consumer inflation data on Friday showed prices rose by
more than expected in July, following trade data on Wednesday
that showed a surprising pick-up in import growth. This
suggested there is less risk of the world's second-largest
economy sliding into outright deflation.
All of that should make for a stronger open for Europe, with
no major economic data releases, earnings announcements or Fed
speakers on the agenda for Friday. Both EUROSTOXX 50 futures and
FTSE futures added 0.3%. A decent day would help the FTSE to
reverse its weekly losses and the DAX to build on its gains.
With money matters less of a headache, investors can perhaps
turn one eye to the climactic final days of the world's biggest
sporting event, as the Olympic Games in Paris head to their
conclusion on Sunday.
Host country France is now ranked fourth in the gold medal
tally, after the U.S., China and Australia. And it has good
chances at winning in basketball, volleyball and men's boxing.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
-- CFTC commitment of traders positioning data, which will
indicate how many yen shorts have come out of the market
-- Germany final CPI data
-- France ILO unemployment rate for Q2