A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from
Kevin Buckland
Calmer heads appear to be prevailing after China's DeepSeek
triggered a sell-off in AI-related shares, with a relief rally
overnight rippling into the few Asian markets not closed for
Lunar New Year holidays.
Investors are converting to the idea that the startup's
cheap AI assistant won't pull the rug out from under valuations
for Nvidia and its ilk, just as they prepare to assess the
parade of earnings that begin today from the so-called "Mag 7"
tech megacaps.
Facebook owner Meta Platforms ( META ), Microsoft ( MSFT )
and Tesla are on deck for today, and Apple ( AAPL )
tomorrow.
Japan's Nikkei was up about half a percent at the
midday break, on track to snap a three-day losing run.
Australia's stock benchmark gained 0.9%, with additional
momentum from a mild inflation print that boosted the odds for a
rate cut when the Reserve Bank meets next month.
Asia's equity markets were understandably cautious,
however, considering the marquee Wall Street earnings ahead this
week and a barrage of central bank policy decisions that include
the Fed today and the ECB tomorrow.
Added to that is fogginess over how severe U.S.
President Donald Trump's looming tariff announcements might be.
After Trump's comments late last week that he'd prefer not
to slap Beijing with additional levies, following a "friendly"
call with Xi Jinping, the White House reaffirmed that duties on
Canada and Mexico are coming this Saturday, while Chinese
tariffs are still under consideration.
It makes for a bit of a tense Lunar New Year celebration,
with mainland markets on holiday until the middle of next week.
The dollar has been on a yo-yo string since Trump's
inauguration, reacting mainly to shifting tariff expectations.
The dollar index is up about 0.4% so far this week but
down 2% from the two-year peak reached on Jan. 13.
Traders expect the Fed to stand pat on monetary policy
today, even with Trump demanding lower rates. Market pricing
doesn't factor in a quarter-point reduction until June, followed
by one more by year-end.
In contrast, the ECB is widely expected to cut tomorrow,
followed by rapid-fire reductions in March, June and possibly
October.
Europe is also in Trump's tariff cross-hairs, so Saturday's
announcement on Canada and Mexico could bring unwelcome news for
the bloc as well.
Data due today include German GfK consumer sentiment
surveys, Spanish and Belgian GDP, Italian business and consumer
confidence, and Portugal's jobless rate.
Sweden also has GDP figures, and the Riksbank is widely
tipped to cut rates by a quarter point.
Later in the day, the Bank of Canada is considered almost
certain to cut rates by a quarter point as well.
The Bank of England doesn't announce a policy update until
Feb. 6 but Governor Andrew Bailey will be giving evidence on the
Financial Stability Report to a parliamentary committee.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
-US earnings from Meta, Microsoft ( MSFT ), Tesla
-Policy decisions from U.S. Fed, Riksbank, Bank of Canada
-BoE Governor Bailey testifies to parliamentary committee