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MORNING BID EUROPE-Looking to April 2 with trepidation
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Looking to April 2 with trepidation
Mar 25, 2025 11:04 PM

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from

Kevin Buckland

The relief rally in global stocks was still in place on

Wednesday in Asia, but with dwindling conviction.

It's not that there was any news - or late social media

posts from POTUS himself - to change the market's outlook.

It's more that the rally has been built on optimism for a

softer, more flexible stance from President Donald Trump, but

the uncertainty remains - the tariff deadline is still April 2,

and there's still no clarity on what will or won't happen that

day.

As everyone knows, there's nothing markets hate more than

uncertainty.

MSCI's index of world equities started the

week with a 1.2% rally, narrowing to a 0.3% rise on Tuesday, and

just barely staying above water very early in the latest

session.

Japan's Nikkei, for example, began brightly with

gains of 1%, but those were halved by midday. Likewise, Hong

Kong's Hang Seng rose more than 1% early on, but was only

up 0.3% just after noon.

U.S. equity futures flipped from small gains to

small losses.

For now, pan-European STOXX 50 futures are

signalling a 0.1% rise.

To recap, Trump suggested on Monday that not all the levies

he's threatened will be implemented on April 2, and "a lot of

countries" could get some exemptions, without giving further

details.

At the same time, investors got a reminder of how erratic

the trade situation can be, with the announcement of 25% tariffs

on buyers of Venezuelan oil and gas.

And considering Trump has dubbed next Wednesday "Liberation

Day", you would think it would bring at least some fireworks.

Certainly for markets, the day could be a crucial one,

either signalling a more flexible approach to tariffs going

forward, or confirming a hard line, and how difficult it is to

read Trump's intentions.

On the European data calendar, UK CPI will be closely

watched, with the outlook for Bank of England interest rate cuts

looking increasingly cloudy under Trump's trade war.

British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves also delivers a

fiscal update to parliament later today, and is set to announce

an additional 2.2 billion pounds ($2.84 billion) for defence

spending.

France releases consumer confidence and jobs figures, and

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau will be

quizzed about the economy by the lower house's finance

commission.

In the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St.

Louis Fed boss Alberto Musalem both have public speaking

engagements.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

-UK CPI (February)

-France consumer confidence (March), employment figures

(February)

-UK fiscal update

-Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari, St. Louis Fed's Musalem speak

at separate venues

($1 = 0.7733 pounds)

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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