June 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
The final trading week of the first half of the year gets
underway on Monday, with Asia's scorecard looking reasonably
positive from an equity perspective, mixed through a currency
and bond lens, and more bleak from a Chinese market angle.
Chinese stocks will be looking to stop the rot and halt the
recent decline that has extended their underperformance against
regional and global peers this year.
Investors in Japanese assets, meanwhile, are on high FX
intervention alert after the yen fell on Friday for a seventh
straight day towards 160.00 per dollar, the level that triggered
the first of Tokyo's yen-buying forays into the market nearly
two months ago.
With the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting not until July
30-31, it may require verbal or direct intervention again to
halt the yen's slide. The BOJ's summary of opinions from its
June 13-14 policy meeting, to be released on Monday, will be
closely watched.
The regional calendar on Monday also includes the latest
trade figures from New Zealand, inflation from Singapore, and
unemployment and industrial production from Taiwan.
Asian stocks go into the last week of June in decent shape,
supported by subdued volatility and falling inflation globally,
lower U.S. bond yields, and buoyant equities worldwide.
With the end of the first half in sight, however, some
investors will want to lock in profits and square positions. The
slide in Nvidia shares last week - their first weekly decline in
nine - could be a sign of how this week will play out.
Japanese stocks are up around 15% year to date, and the MSCI
Asia ex-Japan, India's Sensex and South Korea's Kospi are all up
around 7%.
The outlier is China.
The Shanghai Composite is barely in positive territory for
the year, has lost 5% in the last month, and is on its worst
weekly losing streak in six years.
The news flow isn't particularly encouraging - trade
tensions between China and the West are increasing by the day it
seems, and on Friday, Washington issued draft rules for banning
or requiring notification of certain investments in artificial
intelligence and other technology sectors in China.
Capital flows aren't particularly supportive either. Foreign
direct investment into China in the January-May period fell 28%
to $49.7 billion from the same period last year, and some $4.5
billion has left the mainland this month via the Northbound leg
of the Stock Connect Scheme, snapping four months of net
inflows.
But Barclays analysts say the selloff is overdone, and the
bar is low for market-friendly positive surprises from next
month's 'plenum' - a key meeting of the Communist Party's
central committee. They recommend positioning for a rebound.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- BOJ summary of opinions from June meeting
- Singapore inflation (May)
- Taiwan industrial production (May)