Aug 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investors in Asia will be hoping that the recovery in global
sentiment and risk assets on Tuesday extends into Wednesday,
although the rebound in U.S. bond yields and the dollar may cool
some of that optimism.
Nothing epitomized 'Turnaround Tuesday' more than the whoosh
in Japanese stocks - a day after tumbling 12% in their second
biggest fall on record, stocks rallied 10% for their third
biggest rise on record.
In some ways, however, day-to-day swings of that magnitude
based on not a lot of fresh or major market-moving news are red
flags. They're typical of more protracted and volatile
downturns, and many investors are retaining a cautious stance.
That said, any respite is welcome. Implied yen volatility
remains elevated but eased off on Tuesday, and Wall Street and
MSCI's emerging, Asian and world stock indices all gained more
than 1%.
Fears of impending U.S. recession will have been allayed
further too, as the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth tracker estimate
for third quarter GDP growth was raised to 2.9% from 2.6%.
Little wonder that U.S. bond yields and the dollar rose.
That's a twin dynamic that is rarely positive for emerging
markets, but if it is part of a broader market recovery and
cooling off in volatility then investors may be more forgiving.
Emerging market participants will also note that the steep
fall in U.S. yields in recent weeks has more than offset the
decline in stock prices. So much so that emerging market
financial conditions are now the loosest since January,
according to Goldman Sachs.
Wednesday's calendar in Asia includes Chinese trade figures
for July, the latest FX reserves holdings from China, Japan and
Hong Kong, and earnings reports from Singapore's top bank DBS
and Japan's SoftBank Group.
China's trade data will be under even particular scrutiny
given the ratcheting up of U.S. trade and tariff tensions.
Export growth is seen quickening, a potential silver lining to
the world's second-largest economy still struggling under a
property sector bust, weak consumer demand and the threat of
deflation.
Monthly changes in countries' FX reserves holdings rarely
have an immediate impact on financial markets, but anyone with
an interest in the dollar's reserve status will cast an eye
towards the latest updates from Beijing, Tokyo and Hong Kong.
That's nearly $5 trillion of reserves, 40% of the global
total. China holds the world's largest stash, with $3.22
trillion, and Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S.
Treasuries, with $1.13 trillion.
Several leading policymakers in the Asia and Pacific region
are scheduled to speak on Wednesday, including Reserve Bank of
Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter, Bank of Japan deputy
governor Uchida Shinichi and Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput
Suthiwartnarueput.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Wednesday:
- China trade (July)
- China, Japan, Hong Kong FX reserves (July)
- Softbank earnings (Q1)