June 5 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Investor sentiment is fragile as Asian markets reach the
mid-point of the week, with bubbling angst and political
volatility across the emerging world compounding deepening
concern over U.S. and global economic growth.
Indian assets, in particular, have been on a wild ride this
week in response to the country's general election result, a
strong safety bid is driving the Japanese yen higher, and
regional stocks are now down four out of the last five days.
That's the backdrop to a jam-packed economic calendar across
the region, which includes: Australian first quarter GDP,
revised GDP data from South Korea, service sector purchasing
managers index data from Australia, China and India, as well as
inflation from Thailand and the Philippines.
These indicators will go a long way to setting investors'
policy expectations for the region. Rate cut hopes are also
likely to mount if the prospects for greater Fed easing continue
to grow - almost 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts this year are
now being priced in, up from around 30 bps last week.
The latest indicator to suggest the U.S. economy is cooling
was the 'JOLTS' report that showed job openings fell more than
expected in April, pushing the number of available jobs per
job-seeker to its lowest in nearly three years.
Wall Street ended mostly flat, despite Treasury yields
falling for a fourth day. Equity bulls might argue that Wall
Street has held up well in the face of renewed growth concerns,
but riskier markets will need more than that.
What does Wednesday have in store for Indian markets? Stocks
surged 3.4% to new highs on Monday after exit polls suggested
Prime Minister Narendra Modi would extend his majority, but
tumbled 5.7% on Tuesday as it became clear he would actually
lose it.
Analysts at Barclays reckon market reverberations will be
felt for a while yet, a premium will be put back into Indian
bonds, and the central bank will maintain its presence in the FX
market to limit volatility and weakness in the rupee.
Volatility in the yen is also picking up, with short-term
implied volatility in dollar/yen on Wednesday jumping the most
in a month as the dollar tumbled below 155.00 yen.
If there is a safe-haven bid in FX right now, it looks to be
going to the yen, which has the potential support of the world's
largest repatriation flow.
Japan is the world's largest creditor with a net $3.36
trillion invested overseas, more than half of that in equity and
debt portfolio assets. Even a sliver of that brought back home
can lift the yen.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Australia GDP (Q1)
- Indian market volatility
- China, India, Australia services PMIs (May)