Feb 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
World markets are at a delicate juncture as a string of
unexpectedly soft economic indicators intensify U.S. growth
concerns, just as rising global trade tensions and geopolitical
uncertainty are already clouding the investment landscape.
Stocks are feeling the heat and the dollar is under pressure
too, while safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold -
especially gold - are attracting strong demand.
Investors on Monday initially welcomed Germany's election result
and gave a thumbs up to the new government's 'pro-growth'
policies, but the early bounce in Europe faded and Asian bourses
were a sea of red.
Wall Street managed to erase some losses after U.S.
President Donald Trump said G7 nations are united in their
resolve to see an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, and that he and
Russian President Vladimir Putin are in "serious discussions"
about achieving that goal.
But Trump later repeated his commitment to slapping tariffs
on imports from Canada and Mexico soon, and stocks stumbled
again.
The Asian calendar on Tuesday includes an interest rate decision
from the Bank of Korea, trade figures from Thailand and Hong
Kong, and Taiwanese industrial production figures for January.
Economists expect the BOK to cut its key interest rate by 25
basis points to 2.75% on Tuesday, after unexpectedly standing
pat last month as policymakers waited for domestic political
turmoil to stabilize before easing further.
Economists polled by Reuters expect Tuesday's cut to be
followed by a further 50 points of easing this year. Money
markets are a little less dovish, pricing in only two full
quarter point cuts this year.
Industrial production in Taiwan ended last year on a high,
boosted by seasonal factors and perhaps firms accelerating
production ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. The 20% year-on-year
rise in December was the fastest growth in five years, and is
unlikely to be repeated in January.
The bigger issue for markets right now, however, is the
deterioration in U.S. economic numbers. Having convinced
themselves that the 'soft landing' was assured, investors are
now entertaining the possibility that the economy may be in the
early stages of rolling over.
Citi's U.S. economic surprises index is now negative, and
the lowest since the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a
50-basis point cut last September. It has been mostly falling
since the November presidential election.
Two more quarter-point cuts from the Fed this year are now
fully priced into the U.S. rates futures curve, and options
market activity may also be pointing in the same direction. S&P
500 option volumes hit an all-time high of 4.74 million
contracts on Friday, according to CBOE, with demand for 'puts'
rising.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to Asian markets on Tuesday:
- South Korea interest rate decision
- Taiwan industrial production (January)
- BoE, Fed, ECB policymakers speak at BoE conference