April 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Amid a flurry of commentary from global financial leaders at the
International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings in
Washington, and with many markets having undergone huge moves in
recent weeks, investors are taking a bit of a time out.
The relentless bond selling of late reversed on Wednesday
and pushed yields lower, gold flatlined again, oil tumbled 3%
for its biggest fall in over two months, and stocks wobbled.
Whether it's fatigue (gold), short-covering (bonds), worries
about the impact of higher borrowing costs on growth and demand
(stocks and oil), or just seeking refuge from the barrage of
headlines from Washington, investors are trimming back risk.
This is the backdrop to Thursday's market open in Asia,
where the calendar includes Japan's tertiary index of industrial
activity, unemployment from Australia and Hong Kong, and a
speech by Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi.
On the equity front, the correction that appears to be
developing in some quarters gathered momentum on Wednesday,
despite a notable decline in bond yields and the dollar's first
daily loss in seven.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index is down 3.6% this week, on course
for its biggest weekly drop since December 2022. The S&P 500
fell for a fourth day, is on track for its third weekly loss in
a row, and is down 5% since its all-time high last month.
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down year-to-date.
Exchange rates - and by extension trade competitiveness,
restrictions, and tariffs - remain under close scrutiny.
President Joe Biden on Wednesday called for sharply higher
U.S. tariffs on Chinese metal products, duties of up to 25% on
certain steel and aluminum products, in a move that will risk
angering Beijing.
Finance leaders from the United States, Japan and South
Korea, meanwhile, agreed to "consult closely" on FX markets in
their first trilateral meeting on Wednesday, nodding to concern
by Tokyo and Seoul over their currencies' recent sharp declines.
The agreement in their first trilateral meeting came as
receding expectations of a near-term U.S. interest rate cut
pushed the yen to 34-year lows, keeping markets on alert on the
chance of yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities.
"We will continue to cooperate to promote sustainable
economic growth, financial stability, as well as orderly and
well-functioning financial markets," a joint statement read.
While Japan may not be actively trying to export its way to
prosperity, and the yen's weakness may be justified on relative
economic and interest rate fundamentals, seismic terms of trade
shifts like this in Asia tend not to go unmatched.
Could Asia be sliding towards a 'beggar thy neighbor' wave
of competitive FX depreciation? The trilateral
U.S.-Japanese-South Korean statement shows officials are acutely
aware of the risks.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Thursday:
- IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington
- Australia unemployment (March)
- BOJ's Noguchi speaks
(By Jamie McGeever;)